NEWSLETTER
Minor league free agency is not a date on the calendar that Major League teams are ever too worried about. Typically, you already had to make tough choices about the best prospects when their Rule 5 eligibility came up, and it’s quite rare that a guy is not rostered before his first Rule 5 eligible draft, is not drafted, and then thereafter plays his way into being a guy on whom you have to make very tough decisions.
So, you usually have one veteran that had a really good season, and you wrestle with the decision of whether to use a spot on the 40-man roster for them over the winter to ultimately give them a shot in Spring Training. And you usually decide against it.
This season, the Cubs have a calculus that’s quite rare surrounding minor league free agency: they have two legit prospects, both of whom have taken steps forward in 2023, approaching their earned individual opportunities to find the best situations for their career. Unless, of course, the Cubs first decide to keep them around by adding them to the 40-man roster. We need to talk about both players, especially with the trade deadline looming.
Up first: outfielder Yonathan Perlaza who has been one of the most consistently impressive players around the system all season, and his recent play in Iowa has him knocking on the door of the big leagues.
Or, well, it would if he wasn’t an awkward fit for the current roster of the big league team. The question going forward is whether the Cubs should give Perlaza a chance to show if he could perform right now against big league pitching. And whether they do that or not, should they add him to the 40-man roster after the season? Or hold a firm line of only offering to re-sign him on a minor league deal in the name of 40-man flexibility? If the Cubs don’t do it, would some other organization offer Perlaza a 40-man roster spot to steal him away?
Let’s explore with a scouting report on Perlaza, who has crushed it at Triple-A Iowa this year, and had a big game yesterday, too …
YONATHAN PERLAZA
Bio: Listed at 5-9, 195. Age 24. Switch-hitter, has played LF/RF this year. Hitting .294/.396/.545 (133 wRC+), .355 BABIP, 13.7 BB%, 22.0 K%, 10/14 SB, 27 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR.
Body Description: Perlaza’s actual weight is far more than what’s listed. He has almost a catcher’s build, with short and sturdy legs, a very strong chest and all-the-way developed upper body. There’s a certain amount of inflexibility that his weight room work has created, but he’s a solid-enough straight-line athlete.
Swing description: Perlaza is like your favorite short golfer. He does a great job of utilizing his lower half and the ground, getting leverage and hitting uphill on the baseball. This creates a lot of top-spinned doubles (and triples), but he does a good job of getting on plane and elevating pitches as well.
He cheats ever-so-little in his swing with his shoulders, opening up in the name of pulling the baseball, and he sees pitches out of hand exceptionally well, allowing him to meet the baseball out in front of him. Perlaza hits balls hard, and while the exit velocities themselves are more above-average than special, it’s a ridiculous 27.8 LD% that ranks 17th in the International League.
The left-handed swing is very subtly less complicated than the right-handed swing, as is often the case with switch hitters, though the numbers haven’t been particularly different in the last two years. I think the key is that with both swings, Perlaza is up there with the intent to damage the baseball, and he’s confident enough in his swing decisions to swing with authority every time.
Fielding: Originally a seven-figure bonus baby middle infielder, the Cubs knew very early in Perlaza’s career that they’d have to work to find him a defensive home. I don’t know if that goal has been accomplished, but left field is really the only answer that makes sense right now.
I don’t think Perlaza is particularly gifted at reading the ball off the bat, and both his speed and throwing arm would probably settle in around average-at-best relative to the big league left fielder crowd. I’d be anticipating something like a minus 5-10 defender over the course of a full season; not enough to kill you, but enough to impact projections and limit his value.
I think there might be some value in an experiment at first base, but his work on the dirt early in his career seems to have made that a non-starter in the Cubs organization, and I’m willing to trust their judgment on that.
My expectations for Perlaza as a big leaguer: I think Perlaza’s offensive skillset is advanced enough that he wouldn’t need a huge learning curve to start sniffing 95-110 wRC+ results in the big leagues. We’d likely see a strikeout rate near 25% to start, and you’d have to think the rate he’s hitting doubles at would reduce in the big leagues, limiting the ISO to closer to .200. It would be key for him to stay diligent about continuing to draw walks.
The name that popped in my head this morning as I began writing about him is Jeremy (not Jason) Giambi, who he’d probably be a bit worse than as a hitter (I don’t think he has that ceiling Giambi reached in 2002), and a bit better than as a defender.
CONCLUSION
It’s interesting, as I wrote out the report, I’ll admit that I did talk myself slightly out of Perlaza as a must-try option in the 2023 season. If the Cubs stop being competitive, then yes, absolutely give it a try. Perlaza could be an improvement over what the Cubs have seen at DH, and has value as Ian Happ insurance for left field. But when you factor in the inevitable learning curve for any player in the AAA-to-MLB transition, I don’t know that I’d bet on it working out.
The bigger question for me is the 40-man question this offseason. I don’t think you can keep Perlaza if you plan to also keep Nelson Velázquez, Brennen Davis, and Alexander Canario on the 40-man. If 1-2 of those players are traded, I would then advocate for Perlaza to be added.
Meanwhile, there are definitely some trade deadline considerations here if the Cubs become light buyers. It’s conceivable they would be more willing to part with Perlaza precisely because of the tricky roster elements here.
