NEWSLETTER
I think we could tell based on a combination of prospect performance this year, trend lines in other rankings, and just a general sense that things were really moving in the right direction, that the Cubs’ farm would fare well in the system rankings. I still very much wanted to see those hopes and thoughts confirmed, though.
Recently, FanGraphs updated their farm system rankings, accounting for both the Draft and the Trade Deadline, and the Chicago Cubs come in at …
NUMBER TWO. The second best farm system in all of baseball, behind only the Washington Nationals. FanGraphs has long been a fan of the Cubs’ extreme quality depth, and it shows up on a list like this. The Cubs have a whopping 53 ranked prospects (35+ FV or higher), behind only the Tampa Bay Rays.
Keep in mind, using the dollar value method that FanGraphs does, they are already accounting for the extreme difference in value between a 60 FV prospect ($55 to $60M) and a 40 FV prospect ($1 to $2M). So this is, in theory, all very apples to apples, even if you didn’t think the Cubs were doing well in top-tier impact prospects.
Oh, and it’s not as if it’s just a ton of depth adding up to the second best system in baseball – by my quick eyeball, I don’t see any systems that have MORE than the Cubs’ five 50-FV-or-better prospects. So, although the Cubs arguably do have the best quality depth in the minors, that’s not the ONLY reason their farm system is so highly regarded by FanGraphs.
Further confirmation that the farm system is viewed as very strong right now overall?
MLB Pipeline just released their updated farm rankings, and the Cubs show up at number four. That’s up from 12 before the season, and that’s despite the Cubs BUYING at the deadline and NOT drafting particularly high. Clearly, Pipeline believes the Cubs saw some huge development gains this season, and that’s exactly what you want to happen right now, as the Cubs move out of a mode where they are just accumulating prospect talent.
From Pipeline’s description of the 4th best farm system: “The Cubs’ system is stronger than it has been since 2015 and much better equipped to produce pitching than it was eight years ago. Horton, Brown and Jordan Wicks are close to taking the mound at Wrigley Field, and Jackson Ferris will need more time but comes with a high ceiling. There’s no shortage of position players on the way to Chicago, including the best defender (Crow-Armstrong) and power hitter (Caissie) in the Minors. Crow-Armstrong, Caissie, Alcántara and Brown all joined the organization via trades.”
That makes me smile, especially when considering that the big league team is also playing reasonably well and has a bright future.
If you wanted to skew negative, you’d point out that three other NL Central clubs are way up high on Pipeline’s list, with the Pirates at number two, the Brewers at number three, and the Reds at number five. It’s not like the Cubs are blowing away their divisional opponents.
At FanGraphs, the Pirates are number one, the Brewers are 14, and the Reds are 21. So, wow. Some very wide opinions here. Nice to know there’s relative consensus on the Cubs.
