NEWSLETTER
The Cubs really stepped on their own cleat with their performance in Colorado Tuesday and Wednesday, but they aren’t THAT much worse off in the standings for it. Time draws short, though.
With the Brewers having lost last night to the Marlins, the Cubs remained 4.0 games back in the NL Central, but five games back in the loss column:
If the Cubs want any chance at winning the division, they have to be within 3.0 games at the start of that final series in Milwaukee (at which point a sweep would give them the division). More realistically, you’d want them to be within 1.0 game, because then a mere series win in Milwaukee would give them the division (because whoever wins that series is going to hold the tiebreaker).
With 12 games remaining for the Cubs before the final series, and 14 left for the Brewers, it’s going to be very difficult to get to 1.0 game back. You’d be looking at something like the Cubs needing to go 9-3, while the Brewers go 7-7. Obviously if the Brewers lose more, it changes the calculus, but they haven’t really shown a penchant for dipping under .500 for long stretches. Moreover, they face the Marlins, Nationals, and Cardinals in that time. Not exactly a murderer’s row.
The Reds are still lurking, though it seems relatively unlikely that they would pass both the Cubs and the Brewers. It would probably take a 13-2 finish or something like that, while both the Brewers and Cubs stumble.
Meanwhile, in the Wild Card race, the Cubs are still in the second position, a game and a half behind the Phillies, and a couple games clear of the Diamondbacks and Reds:
You can see why this weekend’s series in Arizona is so important. Neither the Diamondbacks nor the Reds have an overly difficult schedule the rest of the way, though the Diamondbacks’ is a little tougher than the Reds (and the DBacks also have to face the Giants for a series, so one will ding the other).
The Giants’ remaining schedule is brutal, mostly on the road, and with seven remaining against the Dodgers. The Marlins’ schedule isn’t overly tough, but they did lose Sandy Alcántara and Jorge Soler, so I wouldn’t bet on them to get scorching hot. I tend to think this race will ultimately wind up being three spots for the four teams up top.
Ideally, of course, the Cubs would pass the Phillies for the top Wild Card spot, which would get them a home series in the Wild Card round (though you could argue that finishing in the WC3 position is almost as good, since it would mean you avoid the Phillies in that opening round and instead face the Brewers in Milwaukee). The Phillies have a lot of pushovers left on the schedule, plus three in Atlanta.
A slice of bad news: the Cubs do not own the tiebreaker with the Phillies, Reds, or Marlins, and if they lose just one game this weekend in Arizona, they won’t have it with the Diamondbacks, either. With no more Game 163, and playoff spots decided ENTIRELY by tiebreakers, that’s not good. Gotta keep winning, and would love to see some of these teams wilt down the stretch.
One thing I’ve noticed in just about all these schedules: tons and tons of Cardinals and Mets. So you should be rooting for them down the stretch, much as it pains you.
