NEWSLETTER
Regardless of how the rest of this season shakes out, the coming winter figures to be of enormous importance to the Chicago Cubs. With a solid core in place, a top-5 farm system bubbling onto the big league roster, and an early demonstration of competitiveness, Cubs President Jed Hoyer is likely to be aggressive in supplementing this team; that includes both free agency and trade.
By now, you should know the big players in free agency — Cody Bellinger, Shohei Ohtani, maybe that 25-year-old Japanese ace Hoyer was scouting recently, etc. — but don’t sleep on the trade targets. It’s been a while since the Cubs swung a big buy-side trade in the offseason, but it does happen. And they’ve already been connected to one guy, in particular: 1B Pete Alonso of the New York Mets.
Pete Alonso Rumors
Last we heard, the Mets had considered trading Pete Alonso at the deadline, with the Cubs and Brewers among the leading contenders to get him. And although no deal went down, the general consensus is that the Mets would revisit trading Alonso, who will be a free agent after next season, this winter, with an eye on next competing in 2025 and beyond (a belief supported by the fact that they traded both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the deadline).
Again, an Alonso trade makes sense for the Mets if they don’t intend to to really go for it in 2024 — Alonso, 28, is having yet another great season (45 HRs, 128 wRC+) and is under control for just one more year via arbitration.
A Pete Alonso Extension?
But what if he never actually reaches free agency? This is the Steve-Cohen-Mets, after all, and money is rarely of any consequence. Well, as it turns out, those conversations are apparently already in the works. And Alonso is reportedly looking to get PAAAAAID.
“The New York Mets and star first baseman Pete Alonso are on the same page when it comes to financials for a long-term extension, but they are apart when it comes to the amount of years on a potential deal, as a team source told Inside the Mets.
The same source says Alonso is seeking a 10-year deal, but the Mets have been unwilling to meet him on this number so far. Alonso will turn 29-years-old in December, so a decade long contract would bring him up to 39, which could be why the Mets are currently reluctant to go there….The Mets could possibly trade Alonso this winter when his value will be the highest, but it sounds like they are more likely to try to workout a long-term extension with him first.”
Okay, so the bottom line here can be boiled down to four main points:
Context for the Numbers
Now, without knowing how much he’s seeking on an average annual value, it’s tough to make too many judgements. But I think we can probably take some estimated guesses based on recent deals for first baseman.
None of those comps are exactly perfect, though Olson does come close in age and remaining control. Needless to say, with a few years (and a new CBA) between them (plus the advantage on age), Alonso is probably aiming to at least match Freeman in terms of AAV. And frankly, that’s not a crazy ask … in isolation. But over 10 years? Yeah, that’s where things start getting silly. Even if the end date comes close to lining up with the deals for Freeman and Goldschmidt. And I’m sure Alonso’s camp knows all that. Why wouldn’t you start with silly, especially in a negotiation with Steve Cohen. There’s nothing to lose.
Whether that scares the Mets into trading him or not is yet to be determined — and probably VERY dependent on the plans of new President of Baseball Operations David Stearns. But this is a pretty big development for a star player that not only might be traded this offseason, but may also be in the sights of the Chicago Cubs.
