NEWSLETTER
They have arrived! A baseline for future discussions! If you’re a transaction nerd, it always makes you happy to see them: the annual MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections.
Although not official or perfect, the MLBTR projections for arbitration-level players are frequently quite strong, and among the best ways to roughly gauge how much an arbitration-eligible player may ultimately make in 2024. It’s kind of the ballpark range you use when thinking ahead about possible future budgetary decisions the Cubs may or may not make.
First a quick arbitration primer, for those unfamiliar, since nothing that follows will make sense without it …
Arbitration-Eligible Players and Salary Arbitration
For players who have at least three years of big league service time (plus the top 22% of players (in terms of service time) with fewer than three years, but more than two years (“Super Two” players who get four arbitration years instead of three)), but who haven’t yet accumulated the six years necessary for free agency, it’s time to get yourself a raise in arbitration. You are under “team control” for the following season – the team decides if they want to keep you or let you go – but your salary isn’t set yet, and you also aren’t subject to the unilateral salary selection of your team (like in the first few years of your service time).
So, if the team decides to keep you for the year ahead (“tendering” a contract by the December 2 deadline to make that decision), that’s where the arbitration process comes in.
These players have the right to submit a request for a salary (one number), to be countered by the team for a salary (one number), and then duke it out in an arbitration hearing over which number is better.
Typically, though, arbitration-eligible players and their teams negotiate and agree on a contract before all that fighting happens in late January and February. Indeed, most if not all clubs (including the Cubs) are now “file and trial”: either you come together to agree on a contract for the season ahead, or file your numbers (mid-January) and later head to arbitration. That has had the effect of greatly diminishing the number of arbitration hearings.
The 2024 Arbitration-Eligible Cubs and Projected Salaries
Here are the nine arbitration-eligible Cubs for this offseason, what they’re projected by MLBTR to earn in 2024 if they’re ultimately tendered a contract by the Cubs, where they are in their arbitration years, and what they made this past year:
Justin Steele – $4.1M (Arb year 1 of 4; was $740K in 2023)
Patrick Wisdom – $2.6M (Arb year 1 of 3; was $763K in 2023)
Adbert Alzolay – $2.5M (Arb year 1 of 3; was $745K in 2023)
Mike Tauchman – $2M (Arb year 1 of 3; was $720K in 2023)
Mark Leiter Jr. – $1.6M (Arb year 1 of 3; was $850K in 2023)
Nick Madrigal – $1.9M (Arb year 2 of 4; was $1.1M in 2023)
Julian Merryweather – $1.3M (Arb year 1 of 3; was $737K in 2023)
Nick Burdi – $800K (Arb year 1 of 3; was $720K in 2023)
Codi Heuer – $785K (Arb year 2 of 3; was $800,000 in 2023)
(Crazy thing: last year at this time, the Cubs had 11 arbitration-eligible players, and JUST FOUR of them are still in the organization and on the list above, and JUST TWO of them are repeat arb guys (Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner signed extensions).)
Tender and Non-Tender Decisions
For the most part, any tender decision the Cubs do or do not make this year will be more about the 40-man roster spot than about the money, as most of these are relatively small financial decisions.
There are four OBVIOUS tenders in there: Steele, Alzolay, Madrigal, and Merryweather. Zero chance any of them would just be let go to free up a roster spot.
You can probably include Patrick Wisdom with that group if you want, since I don’t think there’s any chance he’d be straight up non-tendered (unless the Cubs’ internal estimates on salary are WILDLY higher than MLBTR’s). I tend to think, at $2.6 million, Wisdom would have value on the market. So you could try to trade him before tendering, or you could tender and then trade. Or, you tender, and keep him to see how the rest of the winter shakes out. As we saw this past year, you can do a whole lot worse than having a bench guy with Wisdom’s extreme power, who destroys lefties and can play capable first and third (and maybe corner outfield if you were desperate).
You’re probably wondering why I didn’t include Mike Tauchman in that obvious group. I tend to think he’s probably tendered in the end, but a few things do work against him: (1) he has no minor league options remaining, so there’s no flexibility next year; (2) the Cubs have SO many outfielders percolating up and already on the 40-man (and especially if they are trying to retain Cody Bellinger or trade for Juan Soto); and (3) he fell off so hard once he got regular starting time that you worry he can’t carry it over to next year in his age-33 season.
Like I said, I think he’s more likely tendered than not, but anyone who treats it like a slam-dunk obvious decision is mistaken, in my view.
Similarly, Mark Leiter Jr. comes with the same issues. No minor league options left, so you don’t have any flexibility. The Cubs are always going to be loaded with relief options. And once he lost the splitter in the second half, his performance went completely in the tank. So who are you getting next year if you tender him? It’s not about the money, really, it’s about that 40-man spot. If you want to tender him and then make a decision in the spring (when you could cut him for 20% termination pay), that’d be fine. Because when he’s right, he’s obviously VERY FREAKING GOOD. If it’s me, I need to know exactly what happened with the splitter before I could make this decision.
Then you have Nick Burdi and Codi Heuer, which each represent the same question: do you believe enough in their ability to bounce back from serious injuries/lost seasons to be contributors next year? Again, it’s all about the 40-man spot, not the money. Even if non-tendered, that doesn’t mean these guys have to be totally gone from the organization, as you could try to work out some kind of well-priced minor league deal.
Miscellaneous Thoughts
Elsewhere in the NL Central, you can see that the Brewers are in line for a number of significant bumps as guys like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames, Devin Williams, and Adrian Houser get closer to free agency. You wonder if now is when they really would try to trade someone like Burnes, who is a free agent after next season.
The Rays and Orioles each have 16 arbitration-eligible players, if you wanted to peruse for guys the Cubs might try to pluck (either for financial reasons or for roster crunch reasons). The Yankees have a whopping 17 arbitration-eligible players, but I can see a lot of non-tenders in there.
A couple salary projections that may be of particular interest to you: Juan Soto is at $33 million, Pete Alonso is at $22 million. These guys do have significant trade value, even for a single year. But don’t sleep on the fact that they are not cheap in salary – that absolutely impacts the trade price, and the number of teams that can realistically be involved.
