NEWSLETTER
As we’ve discussed, Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto is up there with the best players to come over from the NPB over the course of the last 15+ years. Every week it seemed like we were hearing about a new MLB executive going over to see Yamamoto in person, including Cubs President Jed Hoyer.
Here’s how San Francisco Giants President Farhan Zaidi described the situation to NBC:
“It’s been a pilgrimage over there from front office people to see him,” Zaidi said of Yamamoto. “He’s really one of the top starting pitchers in the world. I know it sounds like an exaggeration, but it’s not. It sounds like a big statement, but yeah, I think both* of those guys will attract some interest and we’re just continuing to do our work on them in anticipation of their posting in a couple of months ….
“It’s just a tremendous combination of athleticism, stuff and command. He just moves really well on the mound. His results have been terrific. It just looks like he’s got plus stuff and he’s sort of putting every pitch where he wants to, which in this day and age where we’re so worried about pitch characteristics and velocity, it’s almost different to see somebody execute at that high of a level with good stuff. A lot of positives there, and he’s been an impressive guy to watch.”
One of the top starting pitchers in the world. Age 25. Available for only money. The bidding is going to get outrageous.
Both that NBC piece and the latest from Jon Heyman have an executive source who believes the price tag could top $200 million.
Currently, there are just TWO active starting pitcher contracts over $200 million: Gerrit Cole’s $324 million deal with the Yankees, and Stephen Strasburg’s $245 million deal with the Nationals (though he’s retiring). Otherwise, the really big guarantees you see for starting pitchers tend to be in the $130 million range. Heck, just two starting pitchers – Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon – have deals worth more than $145 million.
So if Yamamoto does exceed $200 million, it’s a bet that he will truly be one of the best of the best in the game.
His age, of course, is a major factor. And the length of the deal could play with the AAV and change the perception. But any way you slice it, the deal will be a major investment.
For what it’s worth, Heyman’s piece is primarily about the Mets possibly going way over the top to get Yamamoto. The Cubs are listed among the teams that have scouted Yamamoto, though we already knew that.
————————–
*(The “both” in the quote refers to Korean outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee, who is among the top position players in the KBO, and he is expected to be posted this winter.)
