NEWSLETTER
Last offseason, when we were looking ahead to this year’s crop of free agents, Matt Chapman figured to be a pretty intriguing target for the Chicago Cubs.
Sure, Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, and Christopher Morel were each about to get their shot at the third base job in 2023, and also Edwin Rios had just been added to the roster. But, for a variety of individual reasons, none was a particularly strong bet for one season — let alone the foreseeable (and theoretically more competitive) future.
Meanwhile, Chapman was coming off his second straight 4.0+ WAR season (four in a row if you exclude the pandemic year) with 24 HRs and a 118 wRC+. And it had been a pretty incredible run to start his MLB career; debuting at age-24.
2017 (24): 110 wRC+, 14 HRs, 2.6 WAR
2018 (25): 139 wRC+, 24 HRs, 6.3 WAR
2019 (26): 125 wRC+, 36 HRs, 5.7 WAR
2020 (27): 118 wRC+, 10 HRs, 1.1 WAR – short season
2021 (28): 101 wRC+, 27 HRs, 4.1 WAR
2022 (29): 118 wRC+, 27 HRs, 4.2 WAR
Lo and behold, the Cubs’ options in 2023 didn’t pan out. Rios lasted 18 games and never really played third anyway. Wisdom was over-exposed against righties and the defense regressed. Madrigal couldn’t stay healthy (again). And Morel simply wasn’t trusted there defensively. The Cubs even had to go out and get a FIFTH third baseman at the trade deadline, Jeimer Candelario, who’s now a free agent.
So given the Cubs’ competitive timeline, the third base vacancy, and their stated preference for a “margin of safety,” which often manifests in the sort of elite defensive skills that Matt Chapman offers, the soon-to-be free agent figured to be a no-brainer! So … sign us up for some Matt Chapman, right?
Eh. Not so fast. Or at least, it’s not as simple as it once seemed.
Matt Chapman’s 2023 Season
Matt Chapman’s 2023 season was a bit of a disaster relatively speaking. Although the overall numbers look okay on the surface (110 wRC+, quality defense at 3B, 3.5 WAR), he basically had the worst season of his career, and it got worst as it went on: .240/.330/.424 with a 28.4 K% and just 17 HRs.
A different way to visualize the offensive collapse:
March/April (114 PAs): 216 wRC+
May (121 PAs): 63 wRC+
June (101 PAs): 75 wRC+
July (102 PAs): 154 wRC+
Aug (82 PAs): 49 wRC+
Sept (61 PAs): 75 wRC+
Yikes.
So now, things look a lot different.
In fact, things look so different for Chapman that the Blue Jays are no longer a lock to extend a one-year, Qualifying Offer of $20.5M, according to Kaitlyn McGrath at The Athletic. And that’s not really too absurd, because he may very well accept it!
Strategically speaking, a one-year deal for Chapman, 31 in April, could make a lot of sense for the player. And we know his agent, Scott Boras, loves that approach for clients with less than inspiring walk years (look at how well it’s going to play out for Cody Bellinger).
But this is where the scales may start to turn. Because if Chapman is not attached to draft pick compensation, the relative cost of signing him comes down a little bit (sure, it’s all baked into the price at some level, but a team like the Cubs should be more willing to part with money than draft picks).
Matt Chapman, Under the Hood
So when I read that Chapman may not get the Qualifying Offer, I thought it was at least worth taking a look at his peripherals to see what went so wrong in 2023.
And I gotta say … it wasn’t quite as bad as I was expecting, at least in terms of contact quality:
I mean … wow! Those are borderline elite quality-of-contact numbers. All of that with a walk rate north of 10%, a strikeout rate south of 29%, and top-end sprint speed, arm strength, and fielding range.
But don’t get too excited. Because while that all SEEMS to be pointing to a case of extreme bad luck, it really wasn’t. Yes, Chapman’s .339 xwOBA was better than his actual .328 wOBA, but it wasn’t outrageously so. And his .319 BABIP was well above his career mark (.295 BABIP). Plus, when you look month-to-month on stats like his line drive rate, hard-contact, and strikeout rate, you’ll find huge (and bad) variances. He was really streaky, and the bad was BAAAAD-bad.
Should the Cubs Get Involved?
Ultimately, my answer here is no. They shouldn’t. It’s just not as forceful of a “No” as I would’ve thought coming in.
At the end of the day, Matt Chapman may have been a little unlucky last year and may still provide close-to-elite defense at a position of need and elite hard-contact (while possibly being detached from draft pick compensation) … but I just can’t imagine this being the right use of resources for the Chicago Cubs. That said, I won’t be surprised if he does bounce back offensively next year. It’s clearly not out of the question with those batted ball metrics.
This offseason, the Cubs need to add consistent, dependable, upside-laden offensive talent, and I just have no confidence Matt Chapman will be that guy moving forward. His defense would be nice, especially in behind a contact-first rotation — and the drop off from his glove to, say, Christopher Morel’s, might be enormous (and the drop off from his bat to, say, Nick Madrigal’s, might also be enormous). But I’d rather see what an offseason of work can do for Morel at third base. If he can get up to just slightly below average with the glove at third, the overall value he’ll provide the Cubs in cost certainty, offensive upside, and positional fit will be much higher, allowing the Cubs to do more elsewhere.
