NEWSLETTER
In case you missed it yesterday, Brett wrote about the impending Cody Bellinger decision, following a really fascinating dive from Sahadev Sharma at The Athletic.
In short, Sharma solicited the opinions of some anonymous scouts and hitting coaches to figure out what to make of Bellinger’s great results but less-inspiring batted ball metrics last season. And long story short, the scouts believe in Cody Bellinger’s resurgence, even if they suspect he won’t be quite as impactful offensively this coming year as he was last season. Good to know!
But while the meat of Sharma’s article was the opinion of those scouts, he had an interesting related rumor to offer on Bellinger’s timeline and what it could mean for a potential return to Chicago. So let’s have that convo now.
Cody Bellinger’s Timeline
A few weeks ago, Bruce Levine was the first to suggested that Cody Bellinger and Scott Boras would take their free agent negotiations deep into the offseason (January, at least), and now Sahadev Sharma joins the chorus, with a little more detail and one important closing line (bolded emphasis mine):
All scouts agreed that Boras is the wild card here. The Cubs know that and are preparing for him to take Bellinger’s negotiations deep into the offseason. Unless Boras is able to convince an owner to give Bellinger an outlandish deal, it’s unlikely to be done in December.
But if this extends deep through the winter, perhaps the Cubs can be the final destination for Bellinger.
Let’s Make Some Assumptions
That final line has my full attention, and nod of agreement. But to illustrate why I agree with Sharma, let’s etch a couple (presumed) facts into the record as a foundation for this post and the rest of the winter.
Fortunately for all the Belli-evers out there (sorry), that all plays right into how Jed Hoyer operates.
Jed Hoyer’s M.O.
If you’ve followed Cubs President Jed Hoyer’s moves closely over the past few seasons, you know that he absolutely loves to be opportunistic later in the offseason. It’s kind of his entire M.O., believing that value tends to materialize when a player’s market shrinks (even slightly) in January or February. And also that “value is value,” even if it’s pricey.
For a separate example to illustrate my point: You might think $350 million is a crazy amount of money that Hoyer would never spend … but for someone like Shohei Ohtani, who’s expected to get $400-$500M? That would obviously represent value. I genuinely believe Hoyer cares more about value than absolute dollars. And Bellinger could represent value when his market and demands shrink (obviously, Bellinger and Boras are betting on the opposite).
What else do we know about Jed Hoyer? Well, he very clearly likes to wait as long as possible to make decisions, believing he’s less likely to make a mistake if he has more information available. Not all executives operate this way, but he does. He’s said it, and we’ve certainly seen it.
In this case, more information could include what else the Cubs were able to do earlier in the offseason, how much money he has left to spend, what unexpected injuries popped up in Chicago or elsewhere, what his NL Central rivals were able to accomplish, and so on. And for a player with whom you’re already intimately familiar, the downsides of patience aren’t nearly so severe. So if Bellinger were going to sign early, or even “on time” at the Winter Meetings, I’d say the Cubs’ chances of re-signing him were low. But if he’s dead-set on waiting, I actually think the Cubs stand a chance.
Cody Bellinger’s Market
But let’s also not get crazy. The Cubs ARE going to have some serious competition for Bellinger. We already know the Yankees are dying to have him (and tried hard to get him at the deadline). We know that the Giants are going to be interested and have money to spend. And most recently, Kaitlyn McGrath (The Athletic) explained how Bellinger is a fit for the Blue Jays. There will be others, too.
With other more obvious holes on the roster — and at least a couple of legitimately intriguing internal options for center field (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alexander Canario) — Cody Bellinger may not be the team’s biggest priority. In fact, behind the scenes, I’ve heard as much. Not that the Cubs are uninterested in a reunion, but that he’s simply not the priority.
The Bottom Line
There are also those Pete Alonso rumors (which Sharma also addresses). If the Cubs were to add a big bat like Alonso at first base, something that may necessarily happen before Bellinger is willing to sign, then Bellinger might fall even further down the priority rankings. In that scenario, the Cubs definition of “value” could fall far below what Bellinger would be willing to sign, or what he could get elsewhere.
But we’re a little all over the place now, so I’ll just end with these two points: (1) We now have a second report indicating that Bellinger is going to wait deep into the offseason to sign a free agent deal, and (2) if he does wait, the Cubs’ chances of re-signing him likely increase.
