NEWSLETTER
The only gap as large as the variance in Cody Bellinger’s performance over the last five seasons is the one between his projected price tags this winter. Some outlets have him signing for a reasonable $150M-$160M, while others come in as high as $264M. I guess that’s what happens when a young, former MVP hits free agency with this sort of track record…
2019: 161 wRC+ 7.8 WAR
2020: 112 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
2021: 47 wRC+, -1.0 WAR
2022: 83 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
2023: 134 wRC+, 4.1 WAR
…Not to mention a history of injuries (bad!) … alongside impressive walk-season results (good!) … which are plagued with questions about sustainability due to uninspiring advanced metrics (confusing and frustrating!).
To that end, if you’re looking for a dive on Bellinger’s performance last season (and what it might mean for the future), you absolutely have to check out Mike Petriello’s latest at MLB.com, where he answered five key questions:
- How do you even slug .500 with a 10th percentile hard-hit rate?
- How real is the two-strike approach?
- What if he just converted strikeouts into weak contact?
- What about the hard fastballs?
- What does this all mean for the future?
Frankly, if you haven’t read that article yet, you’re probably not fully armed to have an opinion about what the Cubs should do with him this winter. There’s plenty of nuance baked in, no doubt, but the bottom line is pretty simple: Cody Bellinger is likely to be a very good and useful player moving forward, just probably not as good as he was last year.
And like it or not, that changes the calculus significantly, even for a team like the Cubs, who could very much use Bellinger’s skillset in a number of different ways.
Generally speaking, Bellinger’s left-handed bat, contact, speed, pop, etc. fits every team in baseball, including the Cubs. But specific to Chicago, his ability to play center field would provide cover for Pete Crow-Armstrong to arrive on his own terms, while his ability to play first would satisfy another positional vacancy. And relatedly, if Cody Bellinger did wind up at first base because PCA took over center field, the Cubs defense would be near-elite at four spots — center (PCA), shortstop (Dansby Swanson), second (Nico Hoerner), and first (Cody Bellinger). And that makes a whole lot of sense for a team with a contact-oriented pitching staff.
So of you’re keeping track, I think I just said the Cubs could use Bellinger both generally and acutely and that he’s probably still going to be pretty good next year. Doesn’t that mean they will be all over him in free agency? Nope! Not necessarily. Though you couldn’t possibly suss that out from the available rumors, because they are truly all over the place.
Recent Cody Bellinger/Cubs Rumors:
I’m listing the following Cody Bellinger to the Cubs rumors in order of most optimistic to least. These are all fairly recent, though I think a pretty clear story is being told by the end of it.
When you combine all that insight with the very limited positional free agent market (and two hungry teams in New York and San Francisco), it’s pretty difficult to imagine the stars aligning for a Bellinger reunion in Chicago.
I know, I know … BUT WHAT ABOUT JON HEYMAN’S RUMOR?
Well, he’s really the only one saying that. And the only party that benefits from the Cubs perceived involvement in Bellinger’s market is Cody Bellinger (and Scott Boras). Until literally anyone else echoes Heyman’s report, it just has to be dismissed as attempted leverage against reports like the one above from Passan (as in, I’m sure Heyman really did hear that, I just suspect the source of that rumor may have a very specific reason to want it out there).
I will be happy if, at the end of the offseason, Cody Bellinger returns to the Chicago Cubs on a deal that makes sense for both sides. I just think the odds of getting there are a lot lower than I think we all anticipated coming into the offseason.
