NEWSLETTER
Once upon a time, the Chicago Cubs re-signed lefty reliever Brian Duensing to two-year, $7 million deal after the 34-year-old was outstanding for them in 2017 as one of their annual reclamation surprises. The next year, Duensing was neither healthy nor effective, and he never even made it to the second year of that deal.
That was six offseasons ago.
Do you know how many relievers the Cubs have signed to multi-year deals in the offseasons since?
Zero.
Indeed, the only reliever signed to a multi-year deal in that time was the unusual Craig Kimbrel signing, which came after midseason in 2019, and felt more like a trade acquisition. The Cubs weren’t doing that deal in the offseason, and they weren’t doing it at all unless you were talking about a true back-end, top-tier closer type.
In other words, whether middle relievers or setup men, the Chicago Cubs have not signed multi-year deals in their bullpen for that type of pitcher in a very, very long time.
I’m not saying the Duensing deal scarred Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer so badly that they fundamentally altered their philosophy. They already had a pretty clear antipathy for signing those types of relievers to those types of deals. Sometimes that means you miss out on a quality arm, but from their perspective, relievers are so volatile that you also miss a lot of landmines that way.
Fast-forward to today, and maybe, six years later, the philosophy is going to change.
From Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney at The Athletic:
“The Cubs can’t just rely on Counsell’s reputation for expertly managing bullpens. The Cubs are planning to strengthen their rotation and their bullpen, the two interrelated groups that factored heavily into the team’s end-of-season crash. There’s a sense that Hoyer will be a little more flexible with his preferred philosophy of not giving out multiyear contracts to relievers. Perhaps paying extra for that late-inning experience and know-how could be rationalized knowing that Counsell will make data-driven decisions, create opportunities for rookie relievers and manage his pitching staff for the marathon.”
That is MIGHTY interesting right there.
The implication is that the Cubs might finally entertain the multi-year segment of the relief market, and might do so NOT because they look at last season and feel like they needed more quality relievers (though they did). Instead, they’d be doing it because it’s possible Craig Counsell can get EXTRA value out of those types of relievers, and/or could best incorporate and protect them against overuse.
Heck, maybe Counsell himself came in with some ideas on guys he’d love to have in his bullpen, and the front office is thinking about what it would take to get those guys signed.
I will admit that I generally agree with the Cubs’ front office that those increasingly common two and three-year, $15 to $30 million deals for non-elite relievers are not a great value proposition. Of course, a lot of that has been based on the Cubs’ consistent ability to craft a quality bullpen out of cheaper one-year veterans and annual reclamation options. That ability kind of eluded them this season – it certainly did in the part of the season that wound up mattering most – so I, too, am more open to a rethinking.
It’s not my money, of course, so I don’t care in that respect. But in a world where the front office has a budget, I’d just want to make sure they were getting the most bang for their buck.
Looking back at last year’s multi-year reliever signings, you can see the hit and miss. Taylor Rogers was nowhere near what the Giants hoped he’d be, but passable. Luke Jackson was solid, but missed half the year. Adam Ottavino got decent results, but his peripherals look scary bad. Scott McGough was meh. The Padres no doubt regret the Robert Suarez deal. Rafael Montero was a disaster until the postseason. Carlos Estevez was decent. Matt Strahm was an obvious huge win for the Phillies. Chris Martin was so obscenely good for the Red Sox.
If you choose wisely and set the pitchers up for success, these can be great deals (even if you get most of the value in the first season). It might be the price of poker for a certain tier of reliever. But if you get it wrong, it’s a lot of dead money going forward when you’re trying to otherwise aggressively build out the roster.
This will be fascinating to follow. Some of the top relievers still on the market who might require multi-year deals include Josh Hader, Yuki Matsui, Jordan Hicks, Yariel Rodriguez, Robert Stephenson, Nick Martinez, and Craig Counsell’s old friend Brent Suter, among others.
