NEWSLETTER
After being non-tendered by the Dodgers last winter, Cody Bellinger signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs to rebuild his value and hit the market again in a much better position this offseason. And, hey … Mission accomplished!
After slashing .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers, 20 stolen bases, and 4.1 WAR last season, Bellinger was named the 2023 NL Comeback Player of the Year. And now that Shohei Ohtani has signed with his former team, Bellinger is the best positional free agent available. Scott Boras strikes again!
But there are some “buts.”
Not only are there very serious and wide-spread questions about his ability to recreate those results moving forward, Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, was also thought to be seeking a MASSIVE payday, north of $200M (maybe even approaching $300M!). That has predictably limited his market and has led many to speculate that he could linger well into the offseason (something Boras is always comfortable doing), if he doesn’t get the hits he wants early on. And, hey, we’re definitely approaching the end of “early on” here. So … where’s he gonna go? What’s he gonna do?
Destinations for Cody Bellinger
For most of the offseason, Bellinger’s market was thought to be led by the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants, with the Cubs in the mix (but only at “value”) and the Blue Jays a possibility after they missed out on Shohei Ohtani.
But the Yankees have already added two outfielders this offseason, including an enormous left-handed bat in Juan Soto, and that takes them out of the Bellinger sweepstakes all together. Meanwhile, the Giants just signed a left-handed hitting center fielder, Jung-Hoo Lee, to a $113M contract. So they, too, are likely out. And they were Bellinger’s two best and most-willing options for a big deal. So who’s left?
Contract Options for Cody Bellinger
Now here’s where things get a little more interesting. I’m going to borrow an interesting concept brought up by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors. If Boras and Bellinger are unable to land that coveted $200M+ deal this offseason, that doesn’t mean they have to settle for something long-term and below market.
They could, instead, follow the Carlos Correa playbook from just after the lockout. In case you forgot: Two offseason’s ago, a 27-year-old Carlos Correa lingered on the market into March, not able to land the big, long-term deal he was expecting. So instead of settling for “less,” Boras got creative.
The Twins signed Correa to a three-year, $105.3M deal with opt-outs after the first and second season. That way, Correa locked in top-shelf AAVs while getting not one, but two opportunities to re-establish and affirm his value to the market. And … shocker. Another Boras trick worked.
Correa earned $35.1M in 2022 while slashing .291/.366/.467 (140 wRC+) with 4.4 WAR. And he was able to spin that into a 13 year, 350M deal with the Giants … I mean a 12 year $315M deal with the Mets … I mean a six-year, $200M deal with the Twins that could be worth as much as $270M depending on his health. In case you forgot why those first two deals folded, Correa’s medicals were an issue. But the broader point remains: He was able to get that big deal after all.
Even if Correa’s options don’t end up vesting, you can basically claim Boras got him a 7-year, $235.1M deal. Maybe not as big as he was hoping, but it worked.
So maybe Cody Bellinger does something like that? He’s in a pretty similar position, after all, especially given his age.
If Bellinger is able to repeat his performance (or even something close to it) in 2024, he’ll squash a lot of market concern about his health and the new contact-forward, muted exit velocity approach. He’ll also re-enter the market heading into his age-29 season, which is still young enough for one of those mega-deals.
And while there will be some positional competition out there in free agency next winter (Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Alex Bregman), he’d certainly be right up there among the most attractive positional free agents. He’ll also probably still be a center fielder.
And, of course, if he fell flat in 2024, Bellinger would still have two more opportunities to right the ship, all while earning top of the market money in terms of AAV. It’s really not a bad outcome, even if it comes with less security.
Cody Bellinger Back to the Cubs?
I also bring this up because I think this is probably the most likely path for Bellinger to end up back in Chicago (that is assuming he’s not willing to sign a deal around, like, six-years and $150M). An average annual value in the $35M range is a lot, but if it was for just 1-3 years, the risk is limited and the Cubs have the salary cap space both this offseason and in the future (with even more money coming off the books after 2024).
And let’s not forget, despite our very real concerns about Bellinger’s batted ball metrics (a concern that sure seems to be shared across the industry), he still fits this team quite well, especially in the short term. His defense would be an upgrade over Mike Tauchman in center field, his left-handed bat is needed in the lineup, his presence would provide cover for PCA to arrive on his own schedule, and his versatility gives the Cubs more flexibility to add to the roster at first or DH depending on whom they prefer.
Sahadev Sharma got into it a bit on MLB Network this morning:
Lot of what we’ve said above: The two sides would love a reunion, but Jed Hoyer is just not going to go to $200M+ for Bellinger. And frankly, I agree with that. So here’s hoping his market continues to dry up and there’s a perfect, short-term deal that works for both sides in the future!
