NEWSLETTER
With Matt Chapman joining the San Francisco Giants after the Jorge Soler signing, it’s not entirely clear where J.D. Davis is going to play. He could be something of a premium bench option for $6.9 million – his final year before free agency – or the Giants could try to move him for value, or to add pitching. They have suffered through quite a rash of pitching injuries already this spring, and that rotation is thin. Plenty of speculation abounds out there about whether the Giants should go ahead and shop Davis.
That is always going to catch the eye around here, since the Cubs had rumored interest in J.D. Davis at various times when he was with the Mets, and you can start to imagine ways to fit him and his bat on the roster if you squint.
It’s something Greg Zumach, among others, has been wondering openly about for a while in relation to the Cubs, which has kept it rolling around in my mind this week:
The 30-year-old bat-first infielder made himself into a respectable defensive third baseman last year, though the bat fell off a bit to .248/.325/.413/104 wRC+ (career .265/.350/.439/118 wRC+ before last year). I don’t think there’s any question that J.D. Davis is a useful player on almost any roster. The question is for which rosters would he be a regular, and what kind of trade would make sense if his role is something less than everyday?
With the Cubs, the obvious impediment here is Christopher Morel, and the depth behind him on the roster. In a world where the Cubs want to give Morel a very full run at third base, then Davis would not be starting there after an acquisition. He also wouldn’t be starting regularly at first base or in a corner outfield spot, the other positions he’s played. So he would be something of a rotational guy, and the Cubs have a number of those types in the third and first base mix already.
The counter there, I suppose, is that you have Nick Madrigal once again dealing with hamstring issues, Patrick Wisdom out with a quad issue, and you do have the DH slot available for additional bat rotation. So the question shouldn’t be whether Davis displaces Morel at third base, it should be whether he is an offensive upgrade over what the Cubs have available otherwise (and also how much you want a guy like him available as a backstop to Morel if third base just isn’t happening by June or July).
My answer is … eh. Maybe. Is the Cubs’ bench (and third base depth) improved with Davis? Absolutely. Might he be better at DH than anyone the Cubs can regularly send out there? Sure. He might. But when you factor in acquisition cost, plus the possibility that guys like Dom Smith and Garrett Cooper, as platoon bats, might actually provide quite a bit of offensive value if used thoughtfully, and I really start to question whether Davis actually moves the needle on this Cubs team. He probably does, but maybe less in total value than some might think.
I think this is just one of those times – not coincidentally, much like I was with Matt Chapman! – where I wouldn’t strongly advocate for a Davis trade, but I also wouldn’t have any kind of problem with it. His bat projects to be quite good again in 2024, and getting his AND Morel’s bat in there would be pretty darn nice, whoever plays third and whoever is at DH. If the Cubs decided to go that route, that’d be cool by me. But if the Cubs decide they prefer their in-house options and don’t want to give up a meaningful return to acquire one year of Davis, I think that’s fine, too.
(Also, for what it’s worth: J.D. Martinez is still out there in free agency. If the Cubs strictly wanted to add a big-time right-handed DH, they could do it that way. I don’t expect them to. I’m just saying that’s also out there, and the Cubs don’t seem to be interested.)
Circling back to the opening: perhaps the only route where I WOULD push a good bit more for a Davis trade is if the Giants wanted someone like Drew Smyly, who is set to make almost twice as much as Davis, and whose role on the Cubs might wind up limited to lefty relief. I think Smyly can be very GOOD in that role, so I’m not looking for the Cubs to unload him. But if you’re talking a one-to-one swap, with the Cubs maybe eating a little salary, then you do start to get into a range where you probably are, overall, improving the 2024 Cubs. You have to be into that any time the opportunity presents itself.
All that said, I wonder if some other suitor would be more aggressive than that. I expect the Giants are trying to find out right now.
