NEWSLETTER
Do you remember the electric start to Dansby Swanson’s Cubs career last season?
Through his first four games of 2023, Swanson recorded 10 hits (inclunding two 2Bs) on three 3-hit games. Since he was the big new signing of the offseason, it obviously stood out all the more.
Well, the results aren’t quite as strong through the first four games this season (though they’re still excellent), but Swanson is making a TON of really great contact — much more than last year, in fact.
On ten batted ball events through his first four games, Dansby Swanson has recorded an average exit velocity of 96.4 MPH (13th highest in MLB, with four players ahead of him having fewer than 10 balls in play). For reference, his average exit velocity through this point last season was 93.7 MPH (89.0 MPH for his career).
And he’s not just burying all that 2024 velo into the ground. Swanson’s groundball rate is elevated early on, but he’s already barreled up three balls this season, tied for 11th most in MLB, alongside Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez, Shohei Ohtani, and others. His 30% barrel rate ranks 8th. For reference, his barrel rate through this point last season was 6.3% (8.4% for his career).
Meanwhile, Swanson has already put seven balls in play classified as hard-hit by Statcast (95 MPH or greater), good for a 70% hard-hit rate (t-7th highest in MLB). You know the drill: 43.8% through this point last season, 39.6% for his career.
It’s way too early – and the sample is way too small – for “expected” stats to mean anything. Or for this contact quality to accurately project anything going forward. It’s just been a nice four games for him. And it’s not likely that his current slash line (.250/.375/.583) is going to hold all year. He’s capable, sure, but I just don’t think it’ll be anything close to that come October. That’s not what this is about.
I just thought it was a nice sign to see Dansby Swanson smacking the cover off the ball early on. And that’s especially true as he continues to hit a little higher in the batting order than I think he will once Michael Busch (hopefully) establishes himself as a middle-of-the-order bat.
The Cubs’ next game is tonight at 6:40pm CT against the Colorado Rockies, who are starting the left-hander Kyle Freeland. And considering Swanson’s stronger splits against lefties, as well as his history against Freeland in particular (8-18, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, K), I’d say he’s a good bet to make a lot more high-quality contact again tonight.
