Luck Turning? 10% and 100-Win Pace, Neris Bounces Back, Madrigal for Morel, and Other Cubs Bullets

Apr 16, 2024

I won’t say the Cubs luck has finally turned — not one day after they lost Seiya Suzuki to an oblique injury (while still playing without Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Julian Merryweather) — buuuuuuuuut that’s two wins in a row that sure felt like they were headed the other direction. Baseball’s always gonna baseball, I guess.

wheeee! pic.twitter.com/6OKBDUxE65
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) April 16, 2024

Nonetheless, that’s a very good win to secure for the Cubs. There’s nothing worse than using a bunch of relievers in an extra-inning game and still losing, especially when you’re the team to force extra innings late (especially x2 when your bullpen is already tired and struggling). Plus, that was definitely the toughest game in the series, with Merrill Kelly starting and the Cubs offense reeling. The Cubs have two much more favorable matchups against Tommy Henry (tonight) and Brand Pfaadt (tomorrow).

If they can win one of these two games, they’ll bring a series win back home to Wrigley ahead of a four-game set against the 3-14 Marlins before an off-day. At a time when a lot seems to be going wrong for the Cubs off the field, they could potentially set themselves up for a nice little run (knocks on all the wood).

Speaking of which, last night, the Cubs completed their 16th game of the year, which means they’re roughly 10% through the season. And on pace for 100 wins. So that’s fun. FanGraphs still has them projected to finish the year 84-78, but that would technically buy them the NL Central crown. Still, here’s hoping for more tha that.

Despite pitching on Saturday (only 9 pitches) and Sunday (28 pitches), Hector Neris came back out for the 9th inning last night. And you know what? He looked good. I know he walked another batter, which was one of the concerns in our dive into his slow start yesterday, but you can pretty much erase that from the ledger, as not one but TWO pitches (the second and third of the at-bat) caught the strikezone, but were called balls. So instead of a 1-2 count, he went down 3-0, before walking Joc Pederson. The velocity is still lagging (and may never come back), but he just looked a lot better, dropping his splitter in for strikes and putting his fastball on the corners.

Of course, he also got some help from Yan Gomes (and the D-backs, who unwisely used their challenge on Nico Hoerner’s CLEARLY safe slide into home a half-inning earlier (and thus couldn’t challenge this much closer play)), who threw out Blaze Alexander trying to steal second base.

Yan Gomes 💰 pic.twitter.com/kvfgFQIB1f
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) April 16, 2024

Gomes’ arm hasn’t looked great this year, but that was a perfect throw. It may have ultimately been late (I really don’t know), but it worked out for the Cubs that time and helped Neris get through the inning unscathed.

Oh, I almost forgot, but the defense has looked a lot better lately. Cody Bellinger has gotten a ton of work and has been nails, Christopher Morel is cleaning his game up, Michael Busch is more than capable at first base (better than I thought he’d be, to be honest), and even Mike Tauchman has been flashing some leather:

Mike Tauchman lays out to make the catch! pic.twitter.com/wlj8F60sT5
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) April 16, 2024

The last thing from last night’s game for now: defensive substitutions. Logically, it makes sense to sub out Chris Morel for Nick Madrigal, whose defense at third is superior, when the Cubs have a lead and Morel’s spot is not likely to come up again. Except last night, Craig Counsell pulled Morel in the 8th inning when the game was still tied and just before the Diamondbacks took the lead. And while Madrigal’s spot didn’t come up again until the 10th inning, it was in a big spot: First and third, one out. And despite the infield being pulled way in, Madrigal managed to hit into an inning-ending double play. And the D-Backs were able to set that up by intentionally walking Cody Bellinger to get to Madrigal, which probably doesn’t happen if Morel is standing in the on-deck circle. So that sub took the bat out of the hands of Morel AND ALSO (probably) Bellinger.

I don’t think the progress we’ve seen from Morel so far this season is enough to avoid the late-game sub altogether, but that may have been a tad too aggressive and too early in such a tight game.

We will absolutely get into Ben Brown’s start later today. He was great.

In case you missed all the Nico Hoerner fun from last night:

STUD: Nico Hoerner Won That Game for the Cubs with Sheer Willhttps://t.co/JN1p16QPkG pic.twitter.com/21uzrt9Wj0
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) April 16, 2024

Hoerner’s had a weird start to the year, hitting just .208 but getting on base at a .371 clip thanks to 10 walks and 3 HBPs. He did have two hits and a walk last night, though, and has struck out only 9 times this year. So hopefully, he can settle in and start finding some more grass soon enough. He doesn’t have any barrels yet this year, though, and has seen a lot of weak contact. Like I said, weird start. Maybe last night will kick him into gear.

With a lefty starter going for Arizona tonight, I suspect we’ll see Alexander Canario in this game. It’s another late one, though, so start brewing your coffee now.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has had a really slow start offensively, slashing just .208/.236/.377 (50 wRC+) through his first 13 games and 55 plate appearances. That goes along with a 3.6% walk rate and a 30.9% strikeout rate. He has just two hits (both singles), no walks, and 11Ks in his last 23 plate appearances. Plenty of time for him to get right (he’s still so young), but obviously not the start anyone was hoping to see.

An old friend found a new home:

Tony Kemp to Twins. Minors deal.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) April 16, 2024

And a different old friend (Nick Castellanos) did his best impression of a DIFFERENT old friend (Javy Báez):

nick castellanos my goodness pic.twitter.com/0jMrExoAvS
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 16, 2024

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Luck Turning? 10% and 100-Win Pace, Neris Bounces Back, Madrigal for Morel, and Other Cubs Bullets

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