NEWSLETTER
It is not his main point. It is something he immediately tried to hedge as soon as he’d said it.
BUT Jed Hoyer DID say it. So I’ll lead with it.
“I knew that trade was in the works,” Hoyer said of the Marlins’ recent trade of Luis Arraez to the Padres. “I’ve been talking to the Marlins — just in general, you talk to different people. So that [deal] wasn’t a surprise.”
Firstly, there’s your confirmation that the Cubs have talked to the Marlins, as they EXTREMELY should have if the Marlins are going to be selling early. The Marlins have a very interesting rental closer in Tanner Scott, and the Cubs reportedly do have interest.
Secondly, I find it very interesting that in those “general” talks, Hoyer was made aware of the impending Arraez trade. How deep were the discussions, and why would Hoyer need to know about the Arraez trade in relation to those discussions? I can come up with one theory: the Marlins knew they were about to get an influx of prospects, and that would inform the nature of any other trade they make. That’s not to say the Cubs and Marlins have gotten as far as to discuss the specific names of prospects, but it is to say that they may have reached that vicinity, if the Arraez trade return would matter.
Thirdly, this means the Cubs were already talking to the Marlins before the Arraez trade even happened, and it is not merely them reacting to it. Clearly the Cubs know they need relief help. ASAP. So they were already on the horn with an obvious seller in the Marlins. It’s just that the Arraez trade happened first. Makes you wonder what other teams they’ve already been talking to.
OK. So. Now we get to Hoyer’s intended main points. Are the Cubs trying to upgrade the bullpen? Should we expect a trade soon?
Yes to the first, no to the second.
“Unfortunately for [the media], I don’t think [the Arraez trade happening so early] means we get three months of trade season,” Hoyer deadpanned, according to Marquee. “That was kind of a rare one-off. My guess is that was discussed in the offseason. There’s not a lot of deals available this time of year. From that standpoint, we’re in touch. We’re on the phone with everybody but I think you expect you have to at least get more into the season for the most part until those things become a reality ….
“I don’t expect [the Arraez trade] to kick off like a ton of early deals. I think it’ll maybe be earlier than usual but it’s not going to be all of a sudden in mid-May, everyone’s making a bunch of trades. I don’t expect that to happen …. [O]bviously we’ll be looking for external [help]. But that stuff is generally not available this time of year. So the focus right now is on getting healthy and improving guys that might be struggling.”
So there you go. Yes, the Cubs are trying to upgrade the bullpen. Yes, the Cubs have talked to the Marlins about it. No, you should not yet be expecting a trade. Usually you have to pay a substantial premium to jump the market this early, both because you’re getting the trade return for more of the season, and also because sellers generally prefer to let the market of buyers develop more completely.
That said, hey, Hoyer did say that trade season could come “earlier than usual,” so it’s probably not out of the question that the Cubs might be able to put something together earlier than late-July. Maybe even June? There are already some really obvious sellers in the Marlins, White Sox, Rockies, and Angels, and I think the Nationals and A’s will play themselves in to obvious sellers within a matter of weeks.
