NEWSLETTER
The 2020s have been a tumultuous decade for anyone trying to understand the MLB postseason format and its many incentives/quirks.
The 2020 season had 16(!) squads make the tournament, eight from each league (because of the pandemic) with all sorts of different rules. The 2021 season had the more familiar 10-team format, including three division winners and two wild card teams. This is how you remember the 2016 playoffs.
Then there was a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and the format changed again.
Starting in 2022 (and through at least 2026), MLB has a 12-team playoff format, with six teams making the tournament from each league: The three division winners and three wild card teams. But it’s a bit more complicated than that.
Each of the six teams from both leagues are also seeded, but that seeding doesn’t just go in order of the AL/NL standings. Divisions still matter.
Specifically, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are given to the division winners with the first and second best record in each league. And both of those teams are given first round byes. Here’s a visual if it helps:
And that’s INCREDIBLY valuable, because the first round is a three-game (win-or-go-home) series.
And while the third division winner (and the top Wild Card team) get home field advantage for all three of those games … we’re still talking about a three-game series in the sport of baseball. You REALLY want to avoid that if possible.
In that sense, finishing the season as the third division winner (No. 3 seed) is not materially different than finishing as the best wild card team (No. 4 seed). The only advantage there is that you face the No. 2 seed instead of the No. 1 seed if you advance.
And this is where I bring the 2024 Chicago Cubs into the conversation.
The goal for the Chicago Cubs this year, however realistic you think it is or is not, cannot simply be to win the NL Central. All that buys them, in isolation, is home field advantage for a ridiculously challenging three-game series. And the timing of that series doesn’t give you much of an opportunity to align your rotation the way you might want for the NLDS (to say nothing of actually getting some rest).
No, the goal needs to be the finish as one of the top two division winners.
For these last two years, that goal was borderline impossible, not only because the Cubs were simply not good enough, but also because of the Dodgers and Braves were insane.
But the Cubs are better this year. And they have the farm system to improve the team further before the trade deadline. Furthermore, the Dodgers (96 wins) and Braves (95 wins), while still the class of the NL, are both projected to finish with fewer than 100 wins this season. That’s a lofty total, no doubt, but not quite as insurmountable.
So while we’re hardly in a position to be upset about only winning the division, I want to reframe the conversation with a loftier goal in mind. The Cubs need to run away with the central *and* keep the NL East and West firmly on their radar.
If they want to actually improve their odds of advancing in the tournament, the only way to do that meaningfully is by skipping that first round entirely. So that’s what I’ll be thinking about and aiming for (in my head) the rest of the year.
But make no mistake. They have a LONG way to go. Even if you think FanGraphs projected win total for the Cubs is light (and I do), the Cubs are currently sitting at final projected record of 85-77. That’s enough to take the NL Central, sure, but only by one game. And more to the point, that would force them to host a three-game wild card series before facing the Dodgers, if they advanced.
That’s not enough for me. And that shouldn’t be enough for the front office. They need to do what they can at the deadline to improve this team with that target in mind. No more kids gloves. Let’s get serious about winning. One extra three-game series in October is not good enough.
