UPDATE: Cody Bellinger is officially back with the Chicago Cubs, having been called up after publication of this article. Original post follows.
***
According to Taylor McGregor on last night’s broadcast, we are maybe a day away from Cody Bellinger returning to the Cubs lineup, with Seiya Suzuki not far behind him (perhaps after a quick pitstop in Iowa). But a lot has changed since the Cubs lost those two hitters and that means we (er, well, Craig Counsell) might have to rethink the batting order.
As a reminder, here’s what things generally looked like before they left:
- Ian Happ, LF
- Seiya Suzuki, RF
- Cody Bellinger, CF
- Chris Morel, 3B
- Michael Busch, 1B
- Dansby Swanson, SS
- Nico Hoerner, 2B
- Mike Tauchman, RF
- Miguel Amaya/Yan Gomes, C
Counsell could easily just go right back to that, but I think that would ignore some recent trends. For example …
So that leaves us with a few options. Let’s look at three alternatives, each with different leadoff hitters, for the typical lineup *vs right-handed pitchers* (against lefties, I think this will look very different with Hoerner definitely leading off and probably Patrick Wisdom mixed in, as well).
1. Nico Hoerner Keeps Leading Off
- Nico Hoerner, 2B – R
- Cody Bellinger, CF – L
- Seiya Suzuki, RF – R
- Chris Morel, 3B – R
- Michael Busch, 1B – L
- Dansby Swanson, SS – R
- Ian Happ, LF – S
- Mike Tauchman, DH – L
- Amaya/Gomes, C – R
Nico Hoerner has been so impressive out of the leadoff role during this stretch that I’d totally understand not wanting to mess with that. But if he is going to lead off when Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger return, that will shift some other things around, and force Happ well down in the order.
I don’t love batting Suzuki third instead of second, I don’t love batting two righties (Suzuki and Morel) back-to-back, and I don’t love that Happ’s OBP might not be best utilized down low. But this is how it probably shakes out if Hoerner remains up top and you want to preserve at least some lefty/righty balance.
2. Ian Happ Goes Back to Lead Off
- Ian Happ, LF – S
- Seiya Suzuki, RF – R
- Cody Bellinger, CF – L
- Chris Morel, 3B – R
- Michael Busch, 1B – L
- Nico Hoerner, 2B – R
- Mike Tauchman, DH – L
- Dansby Swanson, SS – R
- Amaya/Gomes, C – R
In this lineup, I don’t love how low Hoerner is, but I do like that Happ’s OBP is back up top where it can likely have more impact ahead of the Cubs best hitters. I also like that Mike Tauchman moves up a spot and that Swanson moves way down. There’s also really nice lefty/righty balance without much disturbance to the top of the order. If Happ wasn’t struggling right now, I think this would be the obvious answer. But let’s explore one more option.
3. Mike Tauchman Leads Off
- Mike Tauchman, DH – L
- Seiya Suzuki, RF – R
- Cody Bellinger, CF – L
- Chris Morel, 3B – R
- Michael Busch, 1B – L
- Nico Hoerner, 2B – R
- Ian Happ, LF – S
- Dansby Swanson, SS – R
- Amaya/Gomes, C – L
If we value patience, on-base skills, and seeing a lot of pitches out of the leadoff spot, while preferring a lefty to maintain that 2-6 lefty/righty balance, it would be silly to just outright exclude Mike Tauchman from the conversation. I have no idea if he’s actually going to continue hitting as well as he has, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his approach remains consistent and there’s value in that even when he’s not tearing the cover off the ball.
This is a pretty radical change, but I think it’s at least worth considering, though the issue of Hoerner batting sixth (if you really love Hoerner) is still present. The other problem is that you don’t want too much
So how would you set up the Cubs lineup once these guys come back? Do you think one of these three options make sense, or do you have your own alternative?