NEWSLETTER
I don’t think anyone would seriously consider ranking Cubs catching prospect Moises Ballesteros above guys like Pete Crow-Armstrong or Cade Horton right now. But after those two, and after the start Ballesteros has had at Double-A this season (at his age)? I am not sure there’s too high of a ranking for him right now in that next tier — at least, if he can stay behind the plate as he rises up the system. That’s the big question, but hold that thought for a moment.
To put that all another way, yes, I think it’s at least reasonable to put Moises Ballesteros in that same general tier of Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, Kevin Alcantara, James Triantos, and Jefferson Rojas (my god the Cubs farm is so stacked). And that’s just so incredible. The upsides and floors there are all over the place, particularly because of the positional gap and age variability among that group, but Ballesteros’ bat has just been that good.
Let’s take a closer look and get excited.
Moises Ballesteros 2024 Campaign
As of today, Moises Ballesteros is 20-years, 6 months, and 1 day old. That makes him the third youngest position player (and fourth youngest overall player) at the entire Double-A level.
And despite that significant age gap, Ballesteros is currently slashing .321/.411/.500 (176 wRC+) over 90 plate appearances, which is the eighth best overall slash line at all of Double-A. As you can see, he’s not a one-trick pony, either. Ballesteros is hitting for average, getting on base, and has shown plenty of in-game power.
But it goes beyond just the triple-slash.
Ballesteros is also walking 12.2% of the time (excellent) while striking out just 14.4% (t-16th lowest). We’ve seen other young Cubs prospects ball out at Double-A before. In fact, Owen Caissie was doing something similarly impressive last year at Double-A when he was also 20 years old. But even he was producing less (144 wRC+) and striking out more than twice as often (31.1 K%).
So you could argue that Ballesteros’ bat is ahead of where Caissie’s bat was last season. Which is nuts, of course, because we generally think of Caissie as a very impressive, and very young, bat-first prospect.
But just to really drive it home on the available statistics, let’s touch on some more. Ballesteros also has just a 40.0% groundball rate at Double-A this season, which is great. And he’s really started to utilize the opposite field without sacrificing power:
Pull: 35.4%
Cent: 23.1%
Oppo: 41.5%
ISO: .179 (career .129 ISO before this season)
It’s basically been a DREAM season for him offensively at Double-A. He’s simply checking every single box you could hope for.
But there’s also a pretty big but. Or, if not a “but,” certainly an open question: his ability to stick behind the plate.
If there were absolutely no questions about his ability to stay a catcher, than Moises Ballesteros would probably approach top-20 prospect status (in all of MLB) as soon as mid-season. That’s how impressive it is to do what he’s doing in general, let alone as a 20-year-old catcher at Double-A.
If Ballesteros has to move out from behind the plate, and that’s apparently a serious question, the calculus here changes dramatically. The Cubs might say (or hope) he can be a first baseman. But at 5’7″ and 195 lbs, I’m not so sure about that (to say nothing of the pretty clear commitment they just made to Michael Busch, and the eventual need to find a spot for Caissie). And that would leave the Cubs, essentially, with DH as the available option.
Sure, what he’s doing offensively at Double-A tracks with what you’d still consider an “exciting” bat-only prospect. But there’s just an enormous difference between that player and a catcher. That’s likely why he’s not FLYING up the national prospect boards already. But who knows, maybe he can stick behind the plate, even part-time, and DH the rest of the time. If his bat is anywhere close to as special as it seems like it could be, the Cubs are going to want him involved.
But we’ll go one step at a time.
If Ballesteros was a little older (or not a catcher), I might expect an early-season promotion to Triple-A. But I don’t think we’re quite there yet. For one, he’s logged only barely above 100 PAs at the Double-A level. Owen Caissie saw 528 PAs over a full season at Double-A before getting the bump. For another, all catchers require a lot of development time, but that’s especially true for Ballesteros, who’s got a lot of work to put in to stay behind the plate.
And lastly, the catching jobs at Triple-A are actually tough to free up because they have to be reserved for players who can jump into the big leagues at a moment’s notice (that’s probably why Pablo Aliendo isn’t up at Triple-A yet either). So because of that, they’re often reserved for veteran catchers like the I-Cubs’ Curt Casali and Bryce Windham.
The flip side to this is at some point, Ballesteros’ bat may simply not be challenged enough at Double-A. But maybe that just gives him some more time to focus on catching? So my guess is Ballesteros spends most, if not all, of 2024 at Double-A.
But after that, with his bat, a path to the big leagues will be right there for the taking. If you can’t tell, I am very excited about Ballesteros.
