Lukewarm Stove: Arrieta Fits, Now Yelich Is Unhappy, Martinez, Hosmer, Red Sox, More

Dec 18, 2017

Given how many free agents and potential trade candidates remain available, we knew this week was going to be busy and rumor-filled from the start.

But I can’t say I expected a Cubs-Yu Darvish connection, a fresh Manny Machado conversation, and TWO Lukewarm Stoves before I sat down for dinner. But here we are …

Of course, Darvish isn’t the only front-line starting pitcher available for just dollars this offseason. There’s also Jake Arrieta. And Grant Brisbee discusses his free agent market – one who, until now, hasn’t had a ton of chatter – with a couple of predictions baked in. An “ideal fit” for Arrieta, in Brisbee’s mind, is a return to Texas where he could sign with the Rangers, who could then bounce Mike Minor into the bullpen (the Astros get a hat tip here, as well). The “likely fit,” however, focuses on the Brewers and guesses at a 5 year/$130M deal. The Brewers certainly have the need – Arrieta could be their version of Jon Lester – and they’re interested in Arrieta, but will they finally pull the trigger and attempt their corner turn? I guess I hope not?

But don’t think the two big free agent starters are the only things holding up the offseason. Instead, consider the trade market …

trade market now appears to be holding up free agent market. lots of big names being mentioned in trades, though no certainty many of them will move: machado, mccutchen, abreu, cole, duffy, archer, longoria, avisail, colome, herrera, harrison, kipnis, hernandez, merrifield, etc.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 18, 2017

Yo. There are some serious players in there and at a number of different positions/acquisition costs/years of control, too. At some point, a team (or a free agent) will have to blink, but I can see why things have gone slowly up until now.

Speaking of the trade market, the Pirates are a motivated seller, eh:

So among NYY SP options, 3 very distinct price ranges:
Corbin–FA after 2018, costly but not outrageous. D-Backs motivated seller.
Cole–FA after 2019, probably a lot more expensive than Corbin. PIT a motivated seller.
Fulmer–FA after 2022, very expensive, DET must be convinced.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 18, 2017

Throughout the offseason, the Red Sox were said to be targeting one of Eric Hosmer or J.D. Martinez (and sometimes both) in free agency. But earlier today, they signed first baseman Mitch Moreland to a two-year/$13M deal, which means Hosmer is probably off the table. They still feel like the favorites for Martinez, though their crowded outfield (Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts) continues to present a problem. Of course, they could look to spin off an outfielder in a trade (like Bradley Jr.) … but that could affect the Cubs ability to move a young bat of their own.

With that said, Martinez did suggest that he would DH in Boston if necessary, but apparently other teams have already indicated that they’d let him play the outfield. That would probably force Boston to make an overly aggressive offer for Martinez. There’s a lot of moving parts here, and I’m guessing this is one of the bigger dominoes (currently being held up) of the offseason.

Beware the Cardinals and Josh Donaldson:

The #STLCards have been pursuing #Bluejays 3B Josh Donaldson much stronger than #Orioles Manny Machado, perhaps in part because they'd have a much better chance to lock up Donaldson to long-term extension.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 18, 2017

Earlier today, Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto reportedly requested a trade out of Miami and, right on cue, the reports that Christian Yelich is “unhappy” followed. While Realmuto presents a ton of trade value – he’s good, young, and very cheap – those are precisely the reasons the Marlins might be more inclined to hold onto him for now. Yelich, on the other hand is both very good and very young, but is also only “cheap” by relative standards (I mean, don’t get me wrong, he’s CHEAP ($44.5M guaranteed over the next four years), but the Marlins are clearly shedding payroll like crazy right now). In that respect, I can see them facilitating a trade, no matter how much hemming and hawing they do along the way.

And to that end, sources are telling Jerry Crasnick that the D-Backs, Phillies, and Braves (all three make a ton of sense) have all already reached out to the Marlins in recent days, while the Cardinals did before acquiring Ozuna last week. Apparently, Miami would rather cut the $12-13M needed to get to their (self-imposed) $90M Opening Day payroll in other ways, but are having trouble. My bet? Yelich is traded before the start of 2018.

This makes you wonder which direction the numbers moved:

There was industry speculation last week that Padres/Hosmer were talking in range of 6 years/$120m, but those parameters may have moved since then.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 18, 2017

If the Red Sox are out on Hosmer now, perhaps that pushed the number down a bit. Hosmer’s market, beyond the Padres and Royals, remains extremely unclear, and he’s quite a polarizing player in the “value” debate. And maybe it’s just those two teams:

It could be that Eric Hosmer's choices are down to this:
1. Heir to George Brett-type legacy in K.C., retired number, rebuilding situation, a healthy payday
2. Mentor for the Padres, rebuilding situation, more money (presumably).
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 18, 2017

Brett Taylor contributed to this post.

written by

Michael Cerami

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

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Lukewarm Stove: Arrieta Fits, Now Yelich Is Unhappy, Martinez, Hosmer, Red Sox, More

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