NEWSLETTER
When considering the trade market for a particular player, it’s useful to at least see the perspective of the possible receiving team. We can imagine on our own, for example, what the Braves might be willing to give up for two years of Kris Bryant at arbitration prices, and it’s pretty easy to understand why they might be really reluctant to part with top, big-league ready pieces. Every organization is.
But to get an even better sense of how things are viewed solely through the Atlanta lens, here’s a string of relevant tweets from David O’Brien, who covers the Braves for The Athletic. You get a very clear sense that O’Brien senses this is a very real possibility (beat reporters are often just a liiiiittle more bold in their speculation when they’ve heard some things, even if not reportable, behind the scenes). You also get the sense that the Braves don’t want to offer up from their top tier of their prospects, which … well …
Not sure how serious #Braves are about Ozuna, but to me trade for 3B Kris Bryant for 2 yrs makes so much more sense than paying for prob. 3 yrs of Ozuna, a mediocre-at-best def. OF at this point, w/ an OBP more than 50 points lower than Bryant’s, similar power & costs draft pick
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) December 11, 2019
Talking with someone close to #Cubs, sounds like 2 pitching prospects and a bat would get it done for Bryant. They're assuming he loses grievance & has 2 yrs left before free agency). #Braves match up better than other potential suitors if they're willing to part with prospects.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) December 11, 2019
You can't hang onto all your prospects. You got more than you can play just for this purpose — to use some as trade capital and fill in gaps rather than have to rely on free agency. And we're not talking about trading Ian Anderson or Pache. https://t.co/ZkiHLyMrK2
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) December 11, 2019
Cristian Pache and Ian Anderson are, to be fair, tip top prospects around the game (top 15/30 guys, maybe higher), so I would understand the reluctance to include them in a deal. Buuuuut, we’re talking about one of the most impactful bats in the game on a short-term commitment at a clear position of need. It’s hard to take much of anything off the table, at least on the prospecting side.
If you do take those guys out, could you come up with a package of two pitching prospects and a bat – as O’Brien says – that would be enough to justify dealing Bryant? Outfield prospect Drew Waters is also a top 15/30 guy and righty Kyle Wright is just outside that group, so it’s not like the Braves don’t have tip-top prospects outside of Pache and Anderson, specifically. So, sure, from a pure value perspective, does a package of, like, Waters, Wright, and Bryse Wilson (another top 100 pitching prospect type) fit? Oh, probably.
Do I think the Cubs would make that particular trade? Pretty hard to see unless they’re very serious about punting on 2020, as all three of those guys are more 2021-and-beyond type pieces, and none are guaranteed to succeed in the big leagues.
I would expect the Cubs would, in addition to prospects, very seriously want someone like lefty Max Fried, who is already a capable big league starter – a guy who helps in 2021 and beyond, but also softens the blow of losing Bryant in 2020. But on the flip side, you could easily see the Braves suggesting a couple pitching prospects and a “bat” like Ender Inciarte, whom they’d love to move anyway (and whom they could argue would help the Cubs’ big league team in 2020-21 (and I’d be like … come on, guys)).
We’ll see. Like I said. Interesting to see the perspective of the other side, even if when you don’t agree.
