NEWSLETTER
I generally think of the Cubs player development department as pretty conservative when it comes to assigning players to certain levels, so it shocked me when they promoted outfielder Alexander Canario to High-A immediately upon acquiring him for Kris Bryant. Prior to the trade, Canario was having a fine season in Low-A with the Giants, a 96 wRC+ that was buoyed by a 12% walk rate but brought down by a 29% strikeout rate. It also didn’t necessarily feel worthy of a bump-up, even for a 21-year-old who is already on the 40-man roster.
But one week into his Cubs and High-A careers, the decision appears sound, as Canario has looked completely comfortable with the South Bend Cubs. He has a hit in all seven games he’s played and a home run in the last two. Overall the Dominican outfielder is hitting .310/.375/.586 since joining the organization, with three walks and 10 strikeouts in 32 plate appearances.
Alexander Canario made his last at-bat of his first Four Winds Field homestand count yesterday with another towering 💣 to left! #AlexanderCanarioIsGoodAtBaseball#SBCubs #Cubs pic.twitter.com/j0KXaTfz4Y
— South Bend Cubs (@SBCubs) August 9, 2021
While I did an initial analysis of Canario upon his acquisition, the last week has provided an opportunity to become better acquainted with his skillset. For example, if you look at his FanGraphs page, you’ll see Canario is using the whole field better since coming over, with a (tiny sample) 37% opposite field rate that would be a career high. However, once going through the video, I can tell you that all nine Canario Cubs hits have been to the left side of the second base bag. All impact contact is pull side at this juncture.
This is really because Canario seems to already understand how he can hit the ball hard. He gets it pretty early, gets his arms extended, and uses a modest uppercut to get the ball up in the air. Only two of Canario’s nine hits have been groundballs and I’d also say only two hits have not been hit very hard. Don’t be shocked if we hear language after the season like “highest average exit velocity in the organization” associated with Canario.
This one was 107 mph off the bat (and went 450 feet), for instance:
New organization, same 💪
Alexander Canario, acquired at the Trade Deadline, hits his first @SBCubs homer. pic.twitter.com/ZAskxlJPsC
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 8, 2021
The true test will lie at the next level, as A-ball is not really a place where pitchers throw to the inner third successfully. And Canario’s swing is so geared to have those extended arms that I do wonder how he’ll adjust to being jammed. In general, Javy Báez (who succeeds with similar arm extension) has been able to deal, though much of his success came from developing the ability to get his hands in so that he can still barrel a deep pitch on the inner third (often going the other way). It’s worth noting that Canario’s first hit in the Cubs organization was on an inside pitch, though it’s the only one so far.
It’s also worth pointing out, however, that Canario has only one strikeout on an inner third pitch so far. And, to further separate his skillset from Báez, he doesn’t struggle with those breaking pitches moving away from him so much. Only two of the 10 strikeouts have been against right-handed breaking balls, and in general, I’ve been really impressed with how successfully Canario can see spin with two strikes. For example, he has more hits on 0-2 offspeed pitches than he has strikeouts. On Sunday, he worked back from a 1-2 count to draw a walk in what I thought was his most professional at-bat of the week.
The strikeout problem has come more with high fastballs so far, with those representing half of the whiffs thus far. It’s another issue that is more likely to be exposed further up the latter, where pitchers can command to that part of the zone, but it’s also a clear area for Justin Stone’s team to begin their work. While I think they’ll be loathe to throw major swing changes at Canario, utilizing his pretty solid eye at the plate to learn to lay off those offerings would be helpful. Canario’s ability to inflict damage will be jumping on mistake pitches created by hitter’s counts. He has hard hits against fastballs, curveballs, changeups and sliders, with the commonality being poorly-executed offerings from the pitcher.
Alexander Canario can certainly drive the ball. He came over from San Francisco and was moved up to HiA. pic.twitter.com/6YWvx8NT7K
— Ivy Futures (@IvyFutures) August 5, 2021
It was a fantastic first week for Canario, and it’s that versatility in seeing and hitting different pitches that provides the biggest uptick from my initial analysis. While struggles and development surely lie ahead, Cubs scouts did a nice job in identifying Canario as part of their desired return from the Giants organization.
(For those interested I also have some tweeted thoughts on recent outings for Daniel Palencia, Caleb Kilian and Alexander Vizcaino. Still learning so much about these guys!)
