NEWSLETTER
It’s still too early to identify The Narrative(s) of the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline, but we do have two early candidates as the MLB Rumors of the Year begin to trickle out.
(1) First and certainly foremost, there’s the Shohei Ohtani saga. A free agent at the end of the season, Ohtani is the top (theoretical) trade candidate of the deadline, by far. I know the Angels say they don’t want to trade him, but the Nationals said the same thing about Juan Soto around this time last year. And then, poof: West Coast Soto. And Soto wasn’t even an impending free agent like Ohtani is.
So to put it simply, keeping Ohtani, with virtually no shot at re-signing him, would just be the wrong move for the Angels. Ohtani’s deadline market and possibilities leads the conversation at both The Athletic and ESPN. Though prepare yourselves, most people think the Angels will really have to crater to entertain a deal. That’s either posturing or dumb. There’s really no middle ground. (I guess the Cubs should try to beat them this week, eh?)
(2) Then there’s the murky waters stuff. Yesterday, Brett discussed the general feeling of opacity across a league with only four teams (Royals, A’s, Nationals, and Rockies (if they don’t get weird)) looking like sure-fire sellers a week into June. It’s usually a little clearer than that by now, though things have changed (more on that in a second). And over the weekend, I looped in the weird NL Central storyline, which features a tale of potentially five eventual sellers, including the first-place Brewers.
Benefit for the Cubs
To that latter point, it’s important to remember that an expanded playoff pool, which is now up to six teams from each league (prev: five) and the relocated MLB Draft, which is now at the All-Star Break (moved back from mid-June), has pushed all of these decisions backwards several weeks.
Annoying as that is, it’s probably good news for the Cubs, who need as much time as possible to get themselves back into a better relative position in the NL Central. Basically, they just need to give Jed Hoyer enough confidence to AT LEAST hold onto guys like Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes (who are both already fielding interest from the Padres), Drew Smyly, Cody Bellinger, and so on through the deadline.
But I won’t gloss over the potential hypocrisy there (vis a vis the Angels): If the Cubs are clearly out of it come the end of July, they need to sell. I get it. It’ll just be so incredibly frustrating and disappointing if they do.
If they’re even remotely close, though, I’d rather the Cubs try to make some noise in the second half. As lame as I would’ve thought this sounded in the immediate wake of 2016, I am just not in World Series or bust mode. I’d just like to see the Cubs make the playoffs again. I want that.
Another Corbin Burnes Rumor
At the end of last week, Jeff Passan wrote up the first legitimate trade deadline primer, and in it dropped the possibility of Milwaukee trading Corbin Burnes. Well since then, Jayson Stark dropped a “first 60-games” article of his own, and it also included a similar sentiment from an anonymous MLB executive:
“There’s a world in which (Corbin) Burnes and (Shane) Bieber are out there. There’s a world in which neither are. I’m sure one of these teams is going to sell. Someone will be opportunistic. Someone will put guys out there.
There’s obviously some hedging in there, but I didn’t just want to completely ignore the possibility of the Cubs division leader selling their best starting pitcher, especially when it’s mentioned twice within five days.
White Sox Sale, Including Dylan Cease?
On the South Side of town, the White Sox are gearing up for a potentially active deadline, too … obviously not in the way their fans were hoping:
I would expect (Lucas) Giolito to get traded. He might be the best arm moved this summer. A reliever like Kendall Graveman should be available. Same with (Tim) Anderson. The team’s most exciting asset is (Dylan) Cease. But after finishing second in the Cy Young voting last year, Cease has struggled with his command and watched his strikeout rate tumble. Since he is under team control through 2025, the team may want to wait for his value to increase. But then the team runs the risk of Cease struggling even more, like so many of his teammates have done in recent years.
The White Sox would get absolutely ROASTED if they traded Cease, 27, with 2.5 more years of team control when his value is at a relative low (4.63 ERA). But I also think you wouldn’t have much trouble finding a team willing to pay PLENTY to get him.
It is worth noting, however, that in addition to (or conjunction with?) his falling strikeout rate and rising walk rate, Cease has lost a full click on his fastball (or 2 MPH since 2020, if you want to do it that way). And that’s not easily ignored. He’s also allowing BY FAR the hardest contact of his career, with Statcast agreeing that he’s earned his results (4.55 xERA).
For what it’s worth, FanGraphs has the White Sox (26-35) with just a 6.2% chance of making the playoffs at this point. That’s less than half as good as the Cubs (14.9%).
Marcus Stroman’s Price
And finally, though there’s nothing shocking here, I just wanted to share Jon Heyman’s hit on 670 The Score, when he pointed out that Marcus Stroman will be an extremely attractive trade chip at the 2023 MLB Trade deadline. Because, well duh.
“The guy has performed incredibly this year, I mean he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league and has really helped keep them in it,” Heyman said. “I would say the general-out-there attitude probably means if he does get traded, I think the Blue Jays and the Mets are probably not candidates to take him back. But, I think that on-field stuff isn’t going to cause anyone else to hesitate if they do trade him.
“And again, I’m not wishing they become a seller. If they do, they would get a lot for him. He’s been great.”
Working for the Cubs/him, Stroman, 32, has pitched like one of the top starters in baseball this season. Working against the Cubs, he’s got an opt out at the end of the year. That means the acquiring team would have to pay knowing that IF he were to crater or get hurt, they’d be on the hook for a $21M salary in 2024.
There’s also the fact that he seemingly wants to stay in Chicago and the Cubs have begun extension talks (or had extension talks) in the Spring.
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In case you missed it, I also wrote about our old friend Jeimer Candelario, who’s available and theoretically fits a position of need for the 2023 Chicago Cubs:
