NEWSLETTER
Although Yoshinobu Yamamoto will get the bulk of attention this offseason among pitchers coming over to MLB from Japan – including attention from Jed Hoyer, who is reportedly going to Japan to watch Yamamoto in person – he is not the only significant pitcher expected to come to the States.
There is also lefty Shota Imanaga, who is reportedly set to be posted by his team in Japan. The 30-year-old lefty ace more or less always posts a sub-3 ERA in the NBP, more or less always strikes out a batter per inning, and more or less always strikes out four batters for every one he walks. It’s a remarkably consistent track record of the same level of success over the last decade in Japan.
His best two season by far, however, have come in the last two, when that ERA trends closer to 2.50, and the K/BB ratio is more like 6+ (it’s actually over 8(!) this year).
It is no surprise, then, that Imanaga is getting scouted heavily by MLB teams, including the Chicago Cubs:
I can’t help but wonder if that contingent included Jed Hoyer and whoever else is traveling with him to see Yamamoto.
Because he is five years older than Yamamoto, it’s likely that Imanaga will command a much smaller contract. But that isn’t to say his deal wouldn’t be substantial.
Consider, Kodai Senga came over for his age 30 season, having posted similar numbers as Imanaga, and signed with the Mets for five years and $75 million, with an opt out after three years. If teams feel Imanaga’s stuff will translate as well as Senga’s, you could see him get an even larger deal (Senga has quietly been awesome for the Mets, especially once he seemingly got his feet under him).
In other words, even if Yamamoto is at the top of this class – he’s up there at that Darvish, Tanaka level of posting – Imanaga is a significant signing in his own right. This definitely bears following (as does Yamamoto, as does Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, who is also being posted). Of note, even though there is a posting fee attached, players coming over from the NPB and KBO are not attached to draft pick compensation.
A reminder on how the posting system works for controlled players like Yamamoto and Imanaga coming over from the NPB. Once they are officially posted, they are free to negotiate with MLB teams for 45 days, by which time they must have a deal in place for 2024 if they are going to sign. There is no “bidding” process. Instead, the player’s former team simply gets a release fee based on his new contract: 20% of the first $25 million, 17.5% of the amount between $25 million and $50 million, and 15% of any amount above $50 million.
