NEWSLETTER
The PGA Tour takes a detour west after the Florida Swing, setting its sights on the historic Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course. This renowned public course dates back to 1912 and will challenge players with its 7,412 yards and par-70 layout. While only six players from the OWGR’s top 30 are teeing off this year, all eyes will be on course record holder Scottie Scheffler, making it another “to Scottie or not to Scottie” week.
Before hosting the Houston Open annually, Memorial Park underwent a significant redesign in 2019, led by Brooks Koepka. While the course boasts only 21 bunkers and four water hazards, its true defense lies in the greens. Undulating surfaces, short-grass runoffs, and false fronts all contribute to challenging approaches, according to course superintendent Parker Henry. While the entire layout is visible from the tee box, precise execution will be key to navigating these tricky green complexes.
A historical trend of over-par finishes highlights the need for a well-rounded game at Memorial Park for the Houston Open. However, this year’s spring edition presents a different story due to a shift in agronomy. Gone are the days of Bermuda-covered greens and punishing 2.5-inch rough. Poa trivialis greens and more player-friendly 1.25-inch ryegrass rough promise a more forgiving course. Tee shots are expected to be less penalized, allowing players to take a more aggressive approach. This shift is likely to lead to a significant drop in average scores compared to previous years, with estimates hovering around a full stroke per round. Expect to see players “grip it and rip it” off the tee at this year’s Houston Open, as the consequences for missing the fairway are likely to be less severe.
Remember to head to Betsperts Golf and check out The Rabbit Hole, a unique, officially licensed, fully customizable PGA Tour data search engine. The Rabbit Hole has over 25 metrics that cannot be found or customized anywhere else, along with 40+ course data filters and conditions unique to Betsperts Golf’s tool.Â
We’ve partnered with our friends at VividPicks to give new users full premium access for just $5!
2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Sleepers and Longshots
Stephan Jaeger 50/1 (FanDuel)
He’s not a big guy, but Stephan Jaeger hits it high and far, ranking 23rd in this week’s field in driving distance and fourth in apex height, which will help with holding these firm and fast greens due to the plurality of long approach shots at Memorial Park. Poor recent putting performances have cooled Jaeger’s hot 2024 start, which includes T3 finishes at both Torrey Pines and Mexico.
Jaeger ranks inside the top 15 in multiple key stats for me this week, including SG: T2G (last 50 rounds played), SG: OTT on driver-heavy courses, and SG: APP on long and very long courses. I’m not in love with the outright board with this version of Scottie Scheffler in the field, but a top-20 finish at nearly 2/1 is very appealing for Jaeger here. He’s also -105 on FanDuel to finish inside the top 40. He finished T9 at the last Houston Open held in the fall of 2022.
Jake Knapp 60/1 (FanDuel)
I have a hard time backing any of these long shots to win this year’s Houston Open in a field with Scottie Scheffler, though winning at 100/1 or higher has been the prevailing storyline of the PGA Tour’s 2024 season thus far. I like Knapp’s top 40 price at +115 (FanDuel), and I like his fit for this course.
Knapp has easy length off the tee and has had his best showings to date on some of the Tour’s longest tracks. He ranks second in this week’s field in strokes gained approach on long and very long courses, and Memorial Park definitely falls in that bucket this week. He’s also been a solid putter of late, gaining strokes in six straight starts, including gaining over a stroke per round last time out at The PLAYERS. Those greens at TPC Sawgrass are poa trivialis, the same that he’ll see this week in Texas.
Joseph Bramlett 150/1 (FanDuel)
I don’t believe that Joseph Bramlett is going to win this week’s Houston Open, but when digging down the board, I think he has the skill set that’s ideal for a longshot contender this week. Bramlett, coming off of a T17 finish at last week’s Valspar Championship, hits it a mile. Last week, he gained an average of 19.7 yards per tee shot on the field, and he’s routinely in the 12-20+ yard range in a given week.Â
He’s also an excellent scrambler on the short grass runoffs around the green that are common at Memorial Park. That’ll help him avoid three-putts on these firm and fast greens and keep him in contention despite his long price. The outright price could be worth a sprinkle if you’re looking to fade Scheffler, and his +360 for a top-20 finish pays more than a Scheffler winning ticket does at the same stake. He’s also +165 on FanDuel for a T40 finish.
