NEWSLETTER
The “Lady in Black” is calling, and NASCAR‘s best are ready to answer. This weekend, all three NASCAR series roar into Darlington Raceway where many will earn their Darlington stripes. But before the engines fire, let’s focus on Goodyear 400 odds. Who are the favorites to conquer the track’s unique challenges and claim the checkered flag on throwback weekend? Here are the early odds for the track deemed Too Tough To Tame.
Goodyear 400 Odds
Kyle Larson sits atop the 2024 Goodyear 400 odds board as the favorite at +400, looking to snag back-to-back wins at Darlington. Hot on his heels is the active wins leader here Denny Hamlin at +500, a driver known for mastering tracks like “The Lady in Black” with his strategic tire management. Rounding out the top contenders are Martin Truex Jr. (+650), with last year’s Goodyear 400 winner William Byron and Tyler Reddick sitting at +750.
With Hendrick Motorsports boasting a strong record at Darlington, including their sweep last season, and Joe Gibbs Racing drivers like Hamlin and Truex Jr. always a threat, the stage is set for a battle between these top teams. The two juggernauts have combined to win all but two of the eleven races so far this year and four of the last six at Darlington Raceway. There is ample reasoning behind them also making up five of the six Goodyear 400 odds favorites as seen below at DraftKings Sportsbook.
| Driver | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +650 |
| William Byron | +750 |
| Tyler Reddick | +750 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 |
| Ross Chastain | +1400 |
| Chase Elliott | +1500 |
| Kyle Busch | +1500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1800 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2200 |
| Joey Logano | +2200 |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2800 |
| Alex Bowman | +3500 |
| Noah Gragson | +4000 |
| Erik Jones | +4000 |
| Josh Berry | +9000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +9000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +9000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +10000 |
| Michael McDowell | +13000 |
| Austin Dillon | +15000 |
| Austin Cindric | +15000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +25000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +25000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +40000 |
| Ryan Preece | +40000 |
| Harrison Burton | +40000 |
| Corey Lajoie | +40000 |
| Zane Smith | +50000 |
| Justin Haley | +50000 |
| Kaz Grala | +100000 |
| Derek Kraus | +100000 |
| Daniel Hemric | +100000 |
Goodyear 400 Odds: Throwing it back with two vets
As one of its nicknames suggests, the Track Too Tough To Tame is one of, if not the toughest circuits on the NASCAR schedule. It requires a familiarity with its difficulties and patience that not all drivers have. This is why I like to target my fellow “old guys” or veterans if you will, on tracks of Darlington’s nature. Below are a couple of may favorite Goodyear 400 odds to target ahead of qualifying this Saturday.
Martin Truex Top Toyota +300 (DraftKings) & Top 5 +105 (BetRivers)
Had things occurred differently, or in this case, not occurred at all, we’re probably looking at a NASCAR Cup Series standings with Martin Truex on top. Last week at Kansas marked the second race this year where MTJ looked destined to win. Only for his chances to be ruined by a late (coming to the white flag at Richmond, about 5 laps remaining at Kansas) caution. He finished 4th in both races and was well on his way to topping the Toyota camp both nights as well.
Find great NASCAR Throwback gear at Fanatics!
Martin currently sits around +650 at most sportsbooks to conquer the Lady in Black, a feat he’s accomplished twice over his career. This outright price is a bit steep for me without seeing how he unloads and knowing if Kyle Larson or Denny Hamlin looks fast on Saturday, it’s probably the same if not longer after qualifying no matter where he starts. Another key factor to this bet is that he’s currently priced inside 2-1 for a top-3 finish which does allow for Denny to win, but also means he’s battling it out for the top-finishing Toyota anyway. Backing this up with a Top 5 protects us from yet another calamity late and still presents a decent payout.
Joey Logano Top 10 -105 (BetMGM)
Buckle up cuz I’m on my NASCAR betting arch-nemesis this week. Logano is currently on pace for his worst season since 2011 and he has just 3 top 10 finishes to date. Glancing past that, we have a driver with tremendous consistency at Darlington. Over the last 14 races at The Lady in Black, Joey has an average finish of 9th, 8 top 10s, a low finish of 18th, and a win in the first Gen-7 race. Even more pertinent to this pre-qualifying bet is that the 22’s average starting position in the next-gen car is 5.8 (2nd), and he’s poled it twice.
Not only does Logano exhibit elite race manipulation and the ability to manufacture good results. But if he somehow grabs the pole, there is quite possibly nobody better at using their pit stall to their advantage. Ford’s struggles in 2024 are definitely a cause for concern here, but Logano’s history at Darlington, and his ability to just hang around until late, make me high on his top 10 market.
