NEWSLETTER
The Miami Heat are a better team than the Chicago Bulls. We can all agree on that, right?
We’re talking about a franchise with three trips to the Eastern Conference Finals in four seasons. This included last year’s historic run, where they fought their way through the Play-In Tournament all the way to the NBA Finals before losing to the Denver Nuggets. While struggling this season to look like the contender many expected, they still finished with seven more victories than Chicago and a top 5 defensive rating. Pretending they aren’t better than the Bulls would simply be ignoring the obvious.
But – here’s the kicker – the better team doesn’t always win in the NBA.
Crazy things can happen in a do-or-die showdown, especially when injuries come into play. The argument can be made that the Chicago Bulls now have the upper hand in their battle against the Miami Heat. Not only is momentum on their side after a dominant victory over the Atlanta Hawks, but the Heat will be without their backbone.
Jimmy Butler has officially been ruled out of Friday night’s game. The superstar injured his knee in the first quarter against the 76ers on Wednesday night. He was able to finish out the game, but news broke shortly afterward that he suffered an MCL injury.
I don’t need to tell you how big of a break this is for the Chicago Bulls. Butler is one of the most consistently impactful two-way players in the NBA, which is highlighted by his +4.4 estimated plus that ranks inside the NBA’s 96th percentile, per Dunks & Threes. The Heat will undoubtedly miss his clutch shotmaking and defensive versatility, but the question remains … will the Bulls take advantage?
Five Keys to a Bulls Victory …
(1) Just Pretend Jimmy Butler is Playing
We’ve watched the Chicago Bulls lose to the depleted Washington Wizards, folks. Believing they have this game in the bag would be downright foolish, especially when we consider the culture Miami has in place. The Bulls should mentally head into this game in the same way they would if Butler was on the floor. It’s a must-win battle against an extremely smart, physical, and defensively sound team.
Indeed, Miami is still a solid 13-9 without Butler in the lineup this year. They are going to play the same brand of basketball that got them to this point, which is centered around holding opponents to the third-fewest points per game.
(2) Don’t be Scared of Erik Spoelstra’s Zone
The reason the Heat are among the league’s top defensive teams is because they love to mix and match their looks. We’ve already seen their zone give the Bulls fits at times this year, and I have zero doubt we’ll see it early tomorrow night.
If the Bulls want to advance to the postseason, they’re going to have to come with a disciplined game plan. Beating a zone is all about attacking the middle of the floor and making the smart read. Chicago will either need to use Nikola Vucevic’s quick decision-making or rely on DeMar DeRozan to make the right read. The next step, of course, will then be making a collapsed zone pay by hitting an open jumper.
(3) Speaking of which, make your 3s!
Miami’s offense is bad, but that doesn’t mean they can’t embarrass the Bulls. Whether it be Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Kevin Love, or Caleb Martin, there are multiple players on this roster who can make you pay from deep. Robinson and Herro, in particular, will be moving off the ball non-stop. The Bulls will have to stay locked into both and hit their closeouts.
Meanwhile, they also have to make their 3-pointers on the other end! As we mentioned above, this is one of the best ways to make Miami switch up their zone defense. We also know how damaging the numbers game has proven to be for this Bulls team. I
(4) Don’t turn the ball over
On the one hand, duh. On the other hand, this is especially important against Miami!
The Bulls are arguably the more well-rounded offensive team, believe it or not. Turnovers lead to easy points in transition, and the last thing you want to give this struggling Heat offense those opportunities. They are 13th this season in points off turnovers, and the Bulls’ transition defense can oftentimes leave a lot to be desired.
(5) Control Bam Adebayo
With Butler on the sideline, I expect a lot of offense to run through the Heat’s big man Friday night. Bam Adebayo is one of the better playmaking centers in the league. He averages roughly 4.0 assists per game and will likely be a major part of trying to find both Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson some open looks.
Adebayo only appeared in two of the four regular season matchups against Chicago, but he played really darn well in those two games. The 26-year-old had 24 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists on 8-12 shooting in Miami’s Nov. 18 loss. He then helped lead the Heat to victory against the Bulls with a similar 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists on 8-14 shooting two nights later.
Nikola Vucevic will have the size advantage over Adebayo, but Adebayo will have the leg up athletically.
