Hey, Even ZiPS Says the Cubs Can Make the Playoffs – 2.4% Chance

saying there's a chanceIt ain’t just for Tom Ricketts, Theo Epstein, and Rick Renteria anymore …

FanGraphs has released its league-wide ZiPS-related projection goodness, and you can see playoff odds here and team-by-team WAR breakdowns at each position here. They are fun reads. Among the interesting bits:

  • The Cubs have a 2.4% playoff chance, which is to say that, in about one out of every 40 seasons, you’d expect a team like the Cubs looks on paper to make the playoffs. It could happen!
  • … but not winning the World Series, apparently. Of accomplishing that, ZiPS gives the Cubs a nice, round 0.0% chance.
  • The Cubs are projected to win 71.0 games, fewer than every other team in baseball besides the Astros.
  • Most likely to make the playoffs? The Dodgers, at 80.9%. The Cardinals, naturally, are second at 74.6%.
  • Interestingly, ZiPS really doesn’t care for the Reds this year, giving them a 21.4% chance at the playoffs, less than eight other teams in the NL, including the Pirates (42.6%), Diamondbacks (27.1%), and Padres (24.7%).
  • In terms of positional WAR, the Cubs project to be above average at first base and … nowhere else. I’d argue that catcher should probably project to be a bit above average (ZiPS has it as just average), and I could see the Cubs’ bullpen winding up very good (even if I understand not projecting it that way). Otherwise. I’m not sure I can argue with too much of it.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    The Cubs Walk It Off on a Weird Play at the Plate!

    Whew. That game was kinda dumb, but I tell you, the ending sure was fun. And also weird! So, to set the stage, the Pirates and Cubs' offenses could do nothing all day long. The game was still 0-0 in...

    Brennen Davis FREAKING DID IT AGAIN! AND THEN HE DID IT AGAIN AFTER THAT!

    This guy. What do I even say? I was already kinda buzzy when Brennen Davis homered again - a grand slam - for the fifth time in six games, and sixth time in eight games. THAT IS RIDICULOUS. https://twitter.com/IowaCubs/status/1791967453888598441 Truly...

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 1, Pirates 0 – May 18, 2024

    What matters most is that the Cubs won the game. And it was a fun ending, too. So I'm happy. But I also do feel a little frustrated - or concerned might be the better word - as I'm sure...

    Pre-Gamin’: Pirates at Cubs (1:20 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — Losing to the Braves (and then Jared Jones and Paul Skenes), when you have 10 people on the IL, including your entire middle infield, is not really that concerning to me. It sucks and banking losses is...

    REPORT: Cubs Trade Richard Lovelady to the Rays

    When the Chicago Cubs traded Jake Slaughter to the Seattle Mariners for reliever Tyson Miller, they needed to open a spot on both the active roster and the 40-man roster. They did that in one move by designating reliever Richard...

    Cubs Set a Target Date for Dansby Swanson’s Return, Daniel Palencia Also On His Way

    First, a quick update I kept out of the headline: Nico Hoerner is not in the Cubs lineup today, as he continues to deal with left hamstring tightness. The Cubs have now blown past the maximum IL backdate optimization, which...

    Hendricks Will Get More Chances, Many Injury Updates, A Possible New Scandal, and Other Cubs Bullets

    Sports Saturday around the Taylor household, so it's time to run all over to soccer fields and baseball fields and dance centers. First, Cubs Bullets ... Kyle Hendricks may not have made a load of terrible pitches in yesterday's game...

    Enhanced Box Score: Pirates 9, Cubs 3 – May 17, 2024

    For six hitless, profoundly dominant innings, Paul Skenes today looked like the best pitching prospect I've seen since maybe Stephen Strasburg. The other two who came to mind as I watched were Matt Harvey and Jose Fernandez. Those three, when...

    MLBits: Elly De La Cruz Continues to Electrify, Yanks Want Soto for Long Haul, More

    Elly De La Cruz continues to dazzle and the Yankees want Juan Soto in New York for the rest of his career. That and more in today's MLB Notes! Elly De La Cruz's Four Steal Night Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly...

    Cubs Farm Report | May 17, 2024: I-Cubs’ Homer Party Helps Cade Horton Get His First Triple-A Win

    The Iowa Cubs mashed four home runs and scored 10 runs, as Cade Horton made his best start at Triple-A on Thursday. That and more in today's Cubs Farm Report. Cubs Farm Report | May 17, 2024 Triple-A Iowa Cubs...

    Latest News

    How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Tigers: Live Stream or on TV

    The Arizona Diamondbacks (21-24), with Jordan Montgomery on the hill, host the Detroit Tigers (22-22) who will start Matt Manning, at 4:10 PM ET on Sunday.Keep reading to find out all the details on how to watch Arizona square off...

    How to Watch Red Sox vs. Cardinals: Live Stream or on TV

    Nick Pivetta will take the ball for the Boston Red Sox (22-23) when they visit starter Matthew Liberatore and the St. Louis Cardinals (19-25) on Sunday, with first pitch at 1:05 PM ET and the Cardinals aiming for a series...

    Royals vs. Athletics: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

    On Sunday, looking for a series sweep, Bobby Witt Jr. and the Kansas City Royals (27-19) face the Oakland Athletics (19-28), with first pitch scheduled for 2:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium.Find out how to watch the Kansas City-Oakland matchup...

    How to Watch Astros vs. Brewers: Live Stream or on TV

    Kyle Tucker and the Houston Astros (20-25) host William Contreras and the Milwaukee Brewers (26-18) at 2:10 PM ET on Sunday.Find out how to watch the Houston-Milwaukee matchup below.When is Astros vs. Brewers and when does it start?This matchup between...

    Rangers vs. Angels: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

    On Sunday, Michael Lorenzen will start for the Texas Rangers (23-23) against Jose Soriano and the Los Angeles Angels (17-28), with first pitch scheduled for 2:35 PM ET at Globe Life Field.If you're planning on watching this game, keep reading...

    Phillies vs. Nationals: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

    Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies (32-14) when they host starter Trevor Williams and the Washington Nationals (20-23) on Sunday, with first pitch at 1:35 PM ET.See how to watch the Philadelphia-Washington matchup below.When is Phillies...

    Orioles vs. Mariners: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

    On Sunday, going for a series sweep, Gunnar Henderson and the Baltimore Orioles (28-14) face the Seattle Mariners (24-21), with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.Keep reading to find out how to watch...

    How to Watch Guardians vs. Twins: Live Stream or on TV

    On Sunday, going for a series sweep, Jose Ramirez and the Cleveland Guardians (28-17) play Ryan Jeffers and the Minnesota Twins (24-20), with first pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM ET at Progressive Field.Keep scrolling to find out all the details...

    How to Watch Cubs vs. Pirates: Live Stream or on TV

    Jameson Taillon takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs (26-21) when they host starting pitcher Mitch Keller and the Pittsburgh Pirates (21-26) at 2:20 PM ET on Sunday.Keep reading to find out all the details on how to watch Chicago...

    Knicks vs. Pacers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds: Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 7 – Sunday, May 19, 2024

    The New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers take the court in a decisive Game 7 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The Knicks are favored by 2.5 points in the contest, which will be broadcast on ABC...

    more cubs news