NEWSLETTER
We apply grains of salt to all anonymous rumors as appropriate, but you might need even more than usual when you’re talking about a situation where there could be a CLEAR incentive to fudge. Hence, I say it up top: grain of salt.
In Buster Olney’s latest, we mostly focused on his report that the Cubs have signaled to other teams that they are expecting significant roster turnover, which means almost all veterans are available in trade. But there was another section that stood out to me, as it relates to that broader point, but also narrows the scope specifically on Kris Bryant, who might be the most important component of the Cubs entire offseason.
Specifically, it’s the question of value. Bryant’s value to the Cubs, his value in arbitration, and his value on the trade market:
Rival evaluators are closely following the Cubs’ handling of Kris Bryant, the 2016 NL MVP who will make something in the range of $18 million after posting a .644 OPS in 34 games in 2020. Bryant will be eligible for free agency next fall and the Cubs have made him available for trade in the past, but some officials wonder if the Chicago can find a trade partner before Dec. 2 given Bryant’s 2021 salary, which may be beyond what almost all teams are willing to pay. “You have to look at it this way. What would he get in salary [for 2021] on a one-year deal if he were a free agent right now?” one official said. “He probably wouldn’t get $18 million.”
Immediately, I’ll say that I don’t agree with that one anonymous exec, and I wonder if he or she has an interest in Bryant’s market that goes beyond impartially evaluating it. That’s the grain of salt. A wholllllle lotta folks in the game would have a strong interest in convincing players and their agents right now that Bryant is not worth $18 million, and thus all other players should extrapolate from there.
But even if Bryant could get more than $18 million on a one-year deal this offseason, I think most of us would agree that (1) it sure wouldn’t be much more than that, and (2) it’s a pretty close call if you have to have figure that out in advance of the December 2 non-tender deadline (whether you’re the Cubs or a trade partner). If Bryant is merely worth his anticipated arbitration salary, then his value in trade is merely the value of being the team that gets to pay him that salary (that’s not zero, but it’s not – for example – a particularly noteworthy prospect). Instead, Bryant would have to be worth $20+ million on a one-year deal for the Cubs to actually net much of anything in trade for him right now.
And since the non-tender question is even a question at all, it’s possible any plausible trade partner is just going to tell the Cubs, “you first,” and force them to make a tender decision before seriously engaging in trade talks (on the chance that the Cubs could non-tender, at which point Bryant is a free agent).
As we’ve discussed, the combined forces of the pandemic, his injuries, and his dreadful performance in 2020 have conspired to take Kris Bryant from a really valuable piece in his final year of team control to a guy you may even have to think about non-tendering on December 2. I wrote earlier this offseason about what goes into that decision, and while I land where I land, this is the unfortunate reality that the Cubs face (and Bryant faces if he does hit free agency):
To the extent the Cubs front office absolutely, unequivocally had to pare payroll 30% from last year – an arbitrarily-selected figure, but chosen because it’s a massive drop – they could accomplish it entirely by non-tendering Bryant and signing no one this offseason. Bryant’s expected 2021 salary is the biggest chunk that is not currently guaranteed and could just go away if the Cubs got desperate enough.
Let me be clear: that’s a brutal offseason. But the point is that the Bryant tender decision could wind up, in isolation, being the central thing for the financial component of the Cubs’ offseason. Thinking about the player, his importance to the organization over the last six years, and his upside … boy does that suck. It sucks that circumstances and a very down season and some injuries have all conspired to make non-tendering Kris freaking Bryant even a conversation. But it is.
The fact that it’s a conversation now makes it all the more likely that the primary focus of the next month for the Cubs is going to be to find a trade partner that wants Bryant for one year at his expected arbitration salary of $19-$20 million-ish. In a normal environment, even coming off a down year, the [Josh Donaldson one-year, $23 million] example illustrates that Bryant would definitely have some meaningful trade value. But when every team is gonna be trying to cut salary? It’s a tall ask to take on $20 million AND give up a quality return. (That’s why I tend to think if Bryant is traded, it’s probably not going to be for impact prospects. Instead, it could be for some big league piece(s), maybe that have a smaller salary, and maybe that are controllable for longer but need even more of a bounce-back/breakthrough.)
Your only real alternative here is the sides getting together on an extension – backloaded to accommodate the financial situation, but large enough to justify Bryant not wanting a chance to bounce back in 2021 before hitting the market. I tend to think that’s pretty darn unlikely on both sides, though. Again, it sucks that the most realistic outcome in all of this is Bryant departing this offseason rather than signing an extension, but that’s where things are.
So, then, we circle back to the possibility that, if trade talks prove futile over the next month, the Cubs will have to decide to either drop a huge chunk of salary (and reap the risk that Bryant has a tremendous 2021 season – not exactly far-fetched!), or to keep one of their best players and “risk” the cost.
As we sit here today, my gut says the Cubs will work very hard to trade Bryant for whatever they can get, and failing that before the December 2 tender deadline, they will tender Bryant a contract. That might mean the offseason is just as slow and tight as ever, but the potential for Bryant to be great in 2021 – either in a competitive year, or as a trade candidate at the Deadline – is too significant to just give him away for nothing. Yes, even knowing that the budget may have to be squeezed in other places.
