NEWSLETTER
Well, we’ve made it. We’re officially in two Lukewarm Stoves per day territory, which is simultaneously far less than we’d normally do during the non-pandemic Winter Meetings, but also so much more than I expected given the state of, like, the whole world.
Adam Eaton Fallout
This week hasn’t been normal, but the Reds did trade their closer, Raisel Iglesias, the White Sox did trade for a top starter, Lance Lynn, the Royals signed Carlos Santana, and the White Sox signed Adam Eaton, which happened just after I clicked publish on the last stove. And now that the dust has settled, we can take a look at some of the fallout.
First, Eaton’s market was apparently robust, with as many as six teams showing interest in him, despite the fact that he was not a top-50 free agent according to FanGraphs or MLB Trade Rumors:
Adam Eaton had a solid market before signing with the White Sox; a half-dozen teams had shown interest in the 32-year-old, per sources.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 8, 2020
Edwards took to Twitter to point out that eight outfielders (George Springer, Marcella Ozuna, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Jurickson Profar, Brett Gardner, and Robbie Grossman) DID make his top-50, and added that Kyle Schwarber would have, too. Does that mean they’re all guaranteed to beat Eaton’s 1-year/$7M deal with a club option for 2022? Of course not, but as the rumors and deals continue to trickle in, one thing has become increasingly clear: The market isn’t quite as devastated as we were led to believe.
As for the Sox, they reportedly did also have interest in Brantley and Pederson, but chose to jump now, instead of waiting out the market for a better deal in January/February. It’s interesting. Part of me wonders if this is just a combination of a competitive team jumping when they can, especially after landing Lynn last night … or if we’ll actually have a more consistent, familiarly-timed trickle of deals to peruse throughout the offseason.
That would certainly be refreshing.
Marlins Looking for Closer
The Miami Marlins are looking to bring back former Cub Brandon Kintzler, who had a nice season there this year. But while the feeling is mutual, nothing is apparently close just yet. I bring that up, however, for a few reasons.
First, he’s a former Cub, so it’s just interesting to track his journey. Second, this is a legitimate rumor from a source (Craig Mish) who knows the Marlins better than anyone, and one that could impact all teams, considering the universal, annual need for affordable relievers. But most importantly, their interest in Kintzler is likely as much about their interest in a top-end reliever as it is about him, personally:
Marlins covet a hard throwing 9th inning arm to close. Regardless of what is said publicly Mattingly has always gone with one guy and one guy only in the 9th. Likes pen to have set roles. I don’t expect that to change.
— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) December 8, 2020
Now, I’ve got to say: Craig Kimbrel’s ability to stay completely out of almost any rumors this offseason initially struck me as very odd. After all, anyone paying close attention knows he returned to form in 2020, after a shaky start to his Cubs career. And given that the Cubs are clearly open to trading anyone – if they’re “very open” to trading Willson Contreras – I can’t imagine them holding on too tightly to a 32-year-old closer who makes a considerable salary.
But remember … this is a market that unanimously rejected Brad Hand for $10M. Kimbrel makes $16M in 2021 (with an identical club option for 2022). His trade value, without eating a ton of salary, might be pretty close to non-existent right now, despite how well he projects for 2021. The deadline could be a different story. Too bad he’s not a starter, because they’re all the rage.
Yankees and Starting Pitchers
Although there are not a ton of rumors therein, I do want to direct you to Ken Rosenthal’s explanation of why the Rangers did not trade Lance Lynn at the 2020 trade deadline. It’s a good read, has some important foundational information, and discusses the Rangers return and what it means for the market/the Sox/etc.
All of that, however, does lead into some rumors about the Yankees, whose lack of a pursuit of Lance Lynn has clearly made a couple of New Yorkers a little antsy.
Over the past week or so, word has spread around the game that the Yankees are not acting aggressively to add to their starting rotation. They’re not even holding serve by pursuing a return with Masahiro Tanaka.
Are the Yankees really going to start the year with Gerrit Cole followed by the promising but mostly inexperienced group of Domingo German, Deivi Garcia, Jordan Montgomery, Clarke Schmidt, Michael King, Nick Nelson and eventually Luis Severino, once he returns from Tommy John surgery?
Lance Lynn fit what the Yankees needed ideally. It is not just that he has been among the majors’ best pitchers since he left New York two years ago. He has arguably been the most durable.
And the Yankees could sure use more certain rotation innings heading toward 2021.
But sources told The Post that the Yankees were not engaged with the Rangers on Lynn. Instead, Texas traded the righty on Monday night to the White Sox to form a rotation front three with Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel that projects to have the kind of veteran surety atop the rotation lacking with the Yankees.
According to Martino, a pursuit of Tanaka is unlikely, at best. And according to Sherman, a pursuit of free agent Trevor Bauer does not seem to be in the cards. Instead, it seems like the Yankees will be swimming in the shallow end of the free agent starter pool, including “Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Rick Porcello, Taijuan Walker,” among others.
But what about a return of very available Reds starter Sonny Gray? Sherman doesn’t even seem to realistically consider it, pointing out that his shortcomings in New York are due to his inability to deal with the pressure of the city.
But Lindsey Adler wrote about it at The Athletic, and she seems to believe a reunion is possible:
The Reds appear to be salary dumping this offseason, particularly evidenced by the trade they made Monday to send closer Raisel Iglesias to Anaheim for a light return. Would Gray be available on the trade market? Seems likely, no? Would he even remotely be a candidate for a return to New York? Conventional wisdom says no, but a lot can change in a few years.
Gray could make a good second starter for the Yankees in 2021 if he had a season like either of the two he had in Cincinnati. The question is if that’s an attainable target: A team wants a good pitcher who pitches to form after they acquire him, and a regression-type situation is a very poor outcome.
I tend to lean that this is pretty unlikely, but never say never. Gray is available and good. The Yankees need starters desperately. End of story.
James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and Lance Lynn (before he was traded) were all also discussed.
Kyle Schwarber’s Market
This article from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is ostensibly about the universal DH, but they used a picture of Kyle Schwarber and that just makes me extremely uncomfortable. If Schwarber ends up with the Cardinals (by some act of pure evil), you know he’s going to hit 50 homers, strike out less than 24% of the time, and finally hit like .285.
But all that got me thinking. What is the deal with Schwarber’s market? We know he’s going to have suitors – and that so many of his potential suitors are likely waiting on the universal DH – but is there any action already?
At 670 The Score, Bruce Levine points out that just 15 of the White Sox’s 96 home runs last season came from the left-side of the plate, where recently non-tendered outfielder Nomar Mazara was supposed to be more than what he was. Ultimately, I doubt Schwarber fits with the White Sox (and Levine mostly ends up in the same place), but in so doing reveals the rest of his market:
Just because teams passed on him recently on the trade market doesn’t mean they’re not interested in Schwarber in free agency. The Angels, Yankees and Blue Jays are three teams that have interest in Schwarber, sources said. Current Angels and former Cubs manager Joe Maddon is known to have a great affinity for Schwarber. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has also left the door open for Schwarber to re-sign if the price is right for each side, though that may be unlikely.
So what’s that, then? The Cubs and Sox are loosely connected, while the Angels, Yankees, and Blue Jays are all circling around the former Cubs slugger. The Angels, of course, have the Joe Maddon connection and the Yankees have always been interested in Schwarber (and want to get more left-handed (on the cheap) this offseason – so they both make sense. I haven’t seen Schwarber connected to the Blue Jays yet, but that team is in vogue for all rumors, so who knows.
Ultimately, unless something significant changes, it seems more likely than ever that Schwarber will play somewhere other than Chicago (north or south) in 2021.
