NEWSLETTER
Earlier this morning, news broke that the New York Mets had extended an offer to Trevor Bauer, but there were conflicting stories initially about whether it would top Gerrit Cole’s $36M AAV deal last winter. Consensus now seems to be that the Mets have indeed made Bauer an offer, but that offer won’t likely be worth more in AAV than Cole’s deal. A possibility? The numbers, themselves, suggest he beat the record (albeit over a MUCH shorter term), but some deferrals or performance incentives or whatever other structure somewhat neuters his actual earnings.
It’s like when Max Scherzer wanted a $200M+ deal with the Nationals, and got himself one in name only. The structure and deferrals of the deal made it worth closer to $170M when all is said and done. But it gets the right headlines and maybe moves the ball forward for future players so maybe that’s a win?
The Mets have made an offer to Trevor Bauer.
What does that offer look like? And how will this all play out?
(@martinonyc) pic.twitter.com/XNXeHPthOj
— SNY (@SNYtv) January 26, 2021
Cleveland Making Moves
One day, I hope the Cubs can have as much financial might as the big market, deep-pocked, perennially-spending … Cleveland Indians?
Earlier this morning, the Indians signed second baseman Cesar Hernandez to a big league deal, which was later confirmed to include one guaranteed year plus a club option. Hernandez, 30, has been an above average bat for four of the past five seasons, while also offering above average defense at second base. He’s pretty close to split-neutral against LHP for his career, too. I can’t imagine how the Cubs could’ve used a low-cost signing like though.
And that’s not all, even after that deal, Heyman dropped this little nugget that caught my attention:
Indians have more irons in the free agent fire. Looking around to improve their team.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 26, 2021
I wonder if they’re actually exploring any additional free agent deals of significance. They already dropped serious 2021 dollars by trading Francisco Lindor ($22.3M) and Carlos Carrasaco ($12M), who has another $15M guaranteed after 2021. Do you get credit for spending to “improve your team” after that, though?
Phillies/Realmuto/Simmons
The Phillies are my new favorite wild card team out there, especially with respect to potential impact on the Cubs own efforts elsewhere. For example, if they continue “staying in touch with J.T. Realmuto,” that could delay the Willson Contreras market long enough to fuddle the Cubs plans (to the extent they have them), whereas a quick resolution could really accelerate those discussions elsewhere (Blue Jays? Angels? Marlins?). You know the Phillies front office is feeling the heat from the Braves, who’ve just tossed their name in the Realmuto ring, despite the presence of Silver Slugging catcher Travis d’Arnaud, but that may have all been smoke/leverage.
Indeed, it seems Philadelphia has the upper hand:
JT Realmuto situation feels like it’s coming to a head. Phillies — believed at about $110M — are trying to close the deal. Braves and Realmuto said to have mutual interest, as @ByRobertMurray reported. But Atlanta is thought to prefer shorter deal and has d’Arnaud thru ‘21.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 26, 2021
I just don’t see the Braves coming through. My guess is he return to Philly and d’Arnaud stays pat. I don’t want to give this next thought too much space, because I really don’t think it will happen, but obviously, yes, Willson Contreras is under control for just two seasons at a far lower value. There is, perhaps, a world in which the Braves target him and/or Kris Bryant and include d’Arnaud as part of the return so that the Cubs have a starting catcher for 2021. But it’s all a little farfetched to me.
The one thing I do know is that as soon as Realmuto signs, there will probably be a follow-up wave of Contreras-related rumors.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are also still in on the shortstop market, specifically for Andrelton Simmons, though Freddy Galcvis and Didi Gregorius both are mentioned as well. Not mentioned? My favorite target, Marcus Semien. There’s still hope … psyche!
Phillies interest in free-agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons has recently picked up, sources said. The team has continued to monitor Freddy Galvis and Didi Gregorius in addition to staying in touch with J.T. Realmuto.
— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) January 26, 2021
JBJ and the Mets
Jackie Bradley, Jr. is another one of those we’re probably dreaming potential free agent Cubs targets, especially if the Mets are seriously considering signing him, as all rumors suggested they might had they missed out on George Springer (which they did):
Jackie Bradley Jr., has remained solid on the Mets’ radar as they look to upgrade CF.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) January 26, 2021
And if Bradley, Jr. does get gobbled up, I think you can probably start penciling in Ian Happ back into center field, which is fine. I tend to think he’d have a much greater impact as a left fielder, where his glove could probably actually be above average, but he’s still fairly new to center field and among one of the hardest workers in the sport. The Cubs could do worse.
Though they still need to find a left fielder. There’s no one really pencilled in there. Or for the fifth starter spot. Or for second base, really. The holes, they are still aplenty. But hey, at least the Cubs have a back-up catcher now.
Masahiro Tanaka Could Be Returning to Japan
It was a possibility all offseason, but now that the Yankees have added Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon, Masahiro Tanaka can see the writing on the wall. He’s expected to receive a formal offer from his former team, the Rakuten Eagles, of the NPB which could accelerate his return to Japan after seven seasons with the Yankees.
Read more about his plans at MLB.com.
Wait, What?
This is quite the little bombshell to drop at the end of January, just months before Trevor Story is set to be a free agent. Certainly, the Rockies aren’t considering trading him right now, right? In my mind, the goal had always been to trade Nolan Arenado, and use those cost savings to extend Story.
But if that’s not happening, I do wonder if Story could suddenly become available:
The broad industry perspective is that the Rockies should push to figure out a Trevor Story strategy — either try to sign him to a long-term deal, or trade him, before he becomes a FA in the fall. As of now, it appears the Rockies are not on either track.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 25, 2021
Odds and Ends
• Interesting to note:
Heard Kluber had multiple offers, including for yr and option with #RedSox. Plus less than $11M #Yankees paid from #Rays. #Bluejays believed in too. In end Kluber liked that 1) NYY had chance to win a title. 2) That his rehab leader Eric Cressey works for the NYY.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) January 25, 2021
• Continued:
As @adamdberry initially reported #Rays made a strong prospect package proposal for Taillon b4 he went to #Yankees. They also were in on Kluber. In fact, those 2 SPs had lots of AL East traction with #RedSox #Bluejays too.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) January 25, 2021
