NEWSLETTER
(This is part two in a short, two-part series on a couple significant minor league free agents on whom the Cubs will have to make surprisingly difficult decisions – either at the Trade Deadline, in the coming months, or at the start of the offseason. Up first was scorching hot outfielder Yonathan Perlaza.)
Minor league free agency is not a date on the calendar that Major League teams are ever too worried about. You usually have one veteran that had a really good season, and you wrestle with the decision of whether to use a spot on the 40-man roster for them over the winter to ultimately give them a shot in Spring Training. And you usually decide against it.
This season, the Cubs have a calculus that’s quite rare surrounding minor league free agency: they have two legit prospects, both of whom have taken steps forward in 2023, approaching their earned individual opportunities to find the best situations for their career. Unless, of course, the Cubs first decide to keep them around by adding them to the 40-man roster.
Outfielder Yonathan Perlaza and infielder Luis Vazquez have been two of the most consistently impressive players around the system all season, and their recent play in Iowa has them knocking on the door of the big leagues.
They’re also relatively awkward fits for the current roster of the big league team, given the overlap of their skillsets and weaknesses with already-established veterans. So should the Cubs give them an opportunity to prove worthy of a Major League roster spot, or should they hold a firm line of only offering to re-sign on minor league deals in the name of 40-man flexibility? If the Cubs don’t do it, would some other organization offer either or both a 40-man roster spot?
I wrote about Perlaza last week, and now up: outstanding defensive infielder Luis Vazquez.
LUIS VAZQUEZ
Bio: Listed at 6-0, 165. Age 23. Right handed, has played 77 of 79 games at shortstop. Across AA and AAA, hitting .283/.344/.478 (111 wRC+), .339 BABIP, 6.6 BB%, 23.6 K%, 7/15 SB, 19 2B, 14 HR.
Body description: It’s hard to appreciate in his jersey, but Vazquez is likely a good 20-25 pounds heavier than his listed weight. I noticed the jump between the 2021 and 2022 seasons, when Vazquez arrived in Spring Training having filled out throughout (I noticed most gain in his chest/shoulders). He’s not at all imposing physically, but the weight room work supports the power breakout that has happened gradually in his career.
Swing description: Vazquez starts pretty upright with his body relaxed, and then gets set deeper into his knee bend as the pitcher begins to throw. He takes a big timing mechanism step forward, and in Triple-A has been a bit guilty of being on his front foot and rolling balls to the left side.
The big change that has unlocked power, I believe, is how the Cubs have lowered his hands over time (Christopher Morel is another we’ve seen go this route). They now start below his shoulders preswing, eventually traveling up just above his right shoulder, and it’s helped him stay on plane and hit the bottom half of the baseball. He does a good job keeping his hands back as long as possible, and trusting solid (but not spectacular) bat speed to meet a pitch on time.
Vazquez is not afraid to go the opposite field with a pitch, and now has enough strength to do damage in that direction. He’s maxed at just under 110 mph in Iowa, with a 95th percentile average of 105.5 mph (per Prospects Live).
Fielding: This is where Vazquez shines. I think the strength of his game is his reaction time off the bat, it simply has to be near the best in professional baseball. He adds plus footwork that allows him to excel both to his left and his right. The glove-to-hand transfer is pretty elite too, and the arm strength is above-average to plus. He has all the tools as a defensive shortstop.
There will be big league shortstops whose twitchy athleticism allow for more range, or whose plus-plus arm gets a few more outs with big 95+ mph throws, so while I’m not trying to sell a Gold Glove outcome, I’m quite confident Vazquez would be a plus defender at shortstop (or second base) at the highest level.
The question for this Cubs team is how he’d fare at third base, and I think it would be quite solid, thanks to the reads off the bat. The arm strength might then lag a little behind, but the Cubs have dealt with far worse from the position in that regard this year.
My expectations for Vazquez as a big leaguer: I think the offense would take awhile still, if I’m being honest. Vazquez can do some solid damage on pitches in the zone, but the chase rate would be an issue at the Major League level. The walk rate might threaten to crater to five percent, and if the strikeouts tick towards 30, it’s a tough road to hoe.
I will say, a patient team with a gaping hole at shortstop would be well served to live with the ups and downs as Vazquez continued to develop. I think he’d be well served to get his front foot down sooner, less dependent on his hands to create all his timing. I think he could be a 10-15 home run guy at the highest level, and you could talk me into 20. But I’d still be forecasting below-average offensive performance.
CONCLUSIONS
It’s interesting, as I wrote out the reports, I’ll admit that I did talk myself slightly out of Perlaza and Vazquez as must-try options in the 2023 season. If the Cubs stop being competitive, then yes, absolutely give it a try. Vazquez could be an improvement over what the Cubs have seen at 3B, and has value as Dansby Swanson insurance for shortstop. But when you factor in the inevitable learning curve for any player in the AAA-to-MLB transition, I don’t know that I’d bet on it.
The bigger question for me is the 40-man question this offseason. With Vazquez, I’m more inclined to roster him (on 40-man) for the 2024 season and give him one more season of development. There’s such value in elite shortstops that you wouldn’t want someone to scoop him away on merely a minor league contract.
Of course, with the Cubs figuring to be light buyers in the days ahead, it’s possible they would be more willing to deal Vazquez right now – if some seller is intrigued by his improvements at the plate.
