Cubs Prospect Notes: Rujano, Cruz, Hernández, Triantos, Top Velocity, More

Aug 11, 2023

Together with a load of new prospect rankings, there are a bunch of other Cubs prospect items to discuss …

It was a big night in the farm system (I discussed Matt Shaw earlier), and I thought I’d share Bryan’s notes, particularly the bit in pitching prospect Luis Rujano:

Luis Rujano had season-high 10 swinging strikes yesterday in another good start for MB. Probably 8 were four seams with good late life. Has good sweeper too, and results have been there all year: 12 of 15 outings are 1 run or less. Plenty of dev work left, but should be on radar.— Cubs Prospects – Bryan Smith (@cubprospects) August 11, 2023

Rujano, the Cubs’ 13th rounder last year, was a legit high school pitching prospect, whom I wasn’t sure the Cubs would even be able to sign where he was drafted. They did, and then he was flashing a nasty slider in instructs. He must’ve had a strong spring, because he got the full-season assignment right out of the gate – challenging for a high school arm – and he’s been impressive. Rujano was a little older for a high school pick – he’s already 20 – but he’s got great numbers at Myrtle Beach, and he’s been getting better as the season goes on. His last 10 outings come with a 1.08 ERA over 33.1 innings, with a 25.4% K rate.

The thing that you have to keep an eye on, though, is the 14.5% BB rate. Sometimes a guy has stuff that is simply way too nasty for very young and inexperienced hitters to handle, but he doesn’t quite have control of it. That can yield nice strikeout rates, but also elevated walk rates. And then when you move up a level or two, the problem really compounds: the hitters don’t miss your stuff in the zone as often, they don’t bail you out when you’re outside the zone as often, and then just the general improvements in contact quality as you move up. So a 25% K rate can quickly become 20%, and a 14% BB rate can quickly become 20%. And just like that, you’ve gone from dominant to unplayable. So that’s why lots of development is still needed, even when the results are great at the lowest level (this is all is not necessarily about Rujano specifically – just speaking generally when you see these trends).

The hardest throwing farm system in baseball? Well, that’s the Dodgers. But the second hardest? Cubs:

Some more MiLB organizational info. The data below includes the 4 levels between Class A and Triple-A.

Average four-seam fastball velocity:

1. #Dodgers 93.1 mph #Cubs 92.9 mph#Reds 92.7 mph
…#Astros 91.7 mph#Guardians 91.6 mph 👀
30. #WhiteSox 91.5 mph— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) August 8, 2023

He’s not a Cubs prospect quite yet, but Fernando Cruz is seen as one of the top prospects in next year’s international free agent class – the clear top prospect to SOME pundits – and he’s still closely tied to the Cubs if you catch my drift. Ben Badler got some eyes on the talented young shortstop:

Here's some more detail on Fernando Cruz, plus some of the other big international prospects for January 2024: https://t.co/yHXDFzx8A8
— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) August 11, 2023

I am letting myself imagine a world where Derniche Valdez really breaks out, Jefferson Rojas continues breaking out, Cristian Hernández finally breaks out, and Fernando Cruz is as studly as the most optimistic evaluators think … and then boom, by this time next year, the Cubs have four of the best 20-and-younger shortstop prospects in all of baseball. It definitely always works out that way, right?

By the way: I know it has been a disappointing year for Hernández at Myrtle Beach – a challenging assignment for a 19-year-old prospect, but one that you would’ve hoped he could really take on if he was going to be a top prospect. BUT! If you want to have some optimism, it’d be this: over the last month, Hernández has hit .260/.333/.384/105 wRC+, which really is solid all things considered. If he could keep up that pace the rest of the way – or improve upon it – you would be back to feeling pretty darn hopeful about his future.

James Triantos has been playing some center field lately:

James Triantos with a diving catch that impressed the Lake County booth at least. pic.twitter.com/0HHf8TV00t
— Brad (@ballskwok) August 11, 2023

We know there have been questions about Triantos’ defensive ability at second and third base, and if you think the bat will play just about anywhere, then go ahead and start getting him outfield exposure now. I’d love it if he showed enough at a spot to really cement himself, because I’m so fascinated by the bat, but maybe he’s a guy who can be passable (not great) at a lot of places, and moving around won’t hurt his productivity at the plate. Again, best to learn about that stuff now before he gets to the higher levels.

Visuals on some of the guys rehabbing in Arizona:

Saw a lot of familiar faces around Sloan Park today, including several in action! Brad Boxberger & @EthanXXVI throwing live BP, @BrennenDavis__ hitting, Kevin Alcantara taking BP and in fielding drills & seeing Ben Leeper in camp. #Cubs pic.twitter.com/KbESMf4f9I— Rich Biesterfeld (@biest22) August 9, 2023

written by

Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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Cubs Prospect Notes: Rujano, Cruz, Hernández, Triantos, Top Velocity, More

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