NEWSLETTER
The Washington Nationals tried to extend Juan Soto twice before they traded him across the country to the San Diego Padres, and it’s hard to say they weren’t serious about it. Their first offer, just prior to the lockout, was reportedly for 13 years and $350 million — a not-insulting, but understandably-rejectable offer from Soto’s perspective given his youth and talent.
The Nats’ second offer, which came just weeks before the trade, was reportedly set at 15 years and $440M! That one, I suspect, was a little tougher to turn down, even as Soto stands to earn more overall by making his way though arbitration and hitting free agency.
Soto is now entering his final year of control with the Padres, estimated to cost a record-setting $33 million via arbitration. And unfortunately for the Padres, that could spell the end of his time in San Diego.
Juan Soto is Likely to Be Made Available in Trade
Back at the end of September, we learned that the vastly under-achieving and over-spending San Diego Padres are planning to shed massive amounts of payroll in cuts that could reach as far as Soto. Immediately, thoughtful commentators suggested that it seems highly likely that Soto is going to be made available.
And just last week, when asked about the possibility of a Soto trade in service of those cuts, Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller didn’t shut anything down.
So, yes, a Juan Soto trade is pretty clearly a possibility this offseason. And given the Cubs’ need for impact power from the left side of the plate, as well as their top-5 farm system, overall organizational trajectory, and financial capabilities, that has our attention.
The Chicago Cubs Will Have Interest in Juan Soto
Up until now, the Cubs’ potential interest in trading for Juan Soto was purely speculative. Logical, sure, but we were just connecting the available dots. But after doing a little digging, I’ve heard from multiple sources that the Cubs’ interest in Juan Soto this offseason is real. That doesn’t mean the Cubs will get a trade done – lots of teams SHOULD have real interest – but the Padres’ ability to shed payroll while adding a great return, and the fit for Chicago, are both unmistakable. And that has me very excited.
There are only so many moves at that level of impact available in a given offseason. Maybe the Cubs could sign Shohei Ohtani. Maybe they could swing a surprise trade for someone like Jose Ramirez or Pete Alonso. But I’d argue that maybe outside of only Ohtani, Soto offers BY FAR the biggest long-term impact to the organization.
You can say you’d prefer to wait until he’s a free agent and try to sign him then (it’s only one year away!), but as we’ve seen in the past (Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, etc.), waiting is not always a reasonable strategy. For the most part, when guys of this caliber get dealt, their new team does what they can to extend them right away. Scott Boras or not. The Padres didn’t do it with Soto, themselves, but that’s at least partly because their initial trade came with 2.5 years of control remaining.
The Padres have since spent a TON of money on other free agents and extensions … with pretty much nothing to show for it. Maybe things would’ve been different had they won, but I believe them when they say they need to cut significant payroll. Remember, until a couple years ago, the Padres never spent ANYWHERE CLOSE to this much money before.
Long story short, if the Cubs want Soto long-term, and they should, they’ll probably have to trade for him this winter.
Juan Soto is Very Good
And just in case his rejection of two massive extension offers didn’t illustrate the point well enough, Juan Soto is very, very good. Best-hitter-in-baseball good, depending on the year.
This past season, Soto slashed .275/.410/.519; 35 HRs, with the third highest on-base percentage and eighth best overall production (155 wRC+) in the sport. And since his debut as a 19-year-old in 2018, Soto ranks among the most valuable offensive players in all of baseball.
wRC+ Leaderboard 2018-Present
- Mike Trout: 172 wRC+ (2,456 PAs)
- Aaron Judge: 166 wRC+ (2,846 PAs)
- Yordan Alvarez: 166 wRC+ (2,033 PAs)
- Juan Soto: 154 wRC+ (3,375 PAs)
- Mookie Betts: 152 wRC+ (3,448 PAs)
As a reminder, 2024 will be just his age-25 season, too. Which means he’s roughly the same age as some familiar Cubs prospects like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and Matt Mervis.
What Would It Take to Get Him?
Although I have heard that the Cubs’ interest is real, I have nothing to report in terms of what they’d be willing to give up (or what the Padres would be seeking in return). All I can tell you is that even despite his age and talent, pricey one-year deals (like the $33M Soto is expected to get via arbitration) are not usually prohibitively expensive to acquire via trade.
Depending on what else was included and how much money changed hands, I would guess that the Cubs would almost certainly not need to touch their top few prospects in a deal for Soto.
But I also doubt a deal with the Padres would be a straight prospect-for-Soto swap. We’re venturing deep into pure-speculation territory now, but given San Diego’s needs in the rotation and the Cubs’ large volume of capable big league starters (and desire to add to the front of their rotation via free agency), maybe that’s one avenue for a match.
The Fit in Chicago
Short-term or long-term, Juan Soto fits with the Cubs. He fits all MLB teams. He’s Juan Soto. Put simply, you don’t NOT get Juan Soto because of outfield prospects at or near the big league level. And you don’t not get Juan Soto because of established, productive big leaguers already on the roster. You get Juan Soto and make the rest work.
We can, of course, discuss the best use of limited organizational resources. But Soto strikes me as one of those talents that you move the world to accommodate (especially at his age). Not the other way around.
Injuries happen, prospects bust, production wanes, players move around, the DH exists, and so on. The Cubs have no business shutting themselves off to the possibility of acquiring a true superstar. And that’s what Juan Soto is.
I would even be fine with the Cubs acquiring him knowing they have virtually no shot at an extension before next winter. Maybe Scott Boras really does want to take him to free agency, no matter what the Cubs (or any team) would offer before then. Next season figures to be a good one for the Cubs and Soto could help. Moreover, they’d have a leg up on getting him to sign as a free agent next winter, and that has value too.
In terms of all the rumors we’ve seen this offseason, the Cubs’ interest in Soto makes me the most excited.
