NEWSLETTER
With every report that comes out shedding light on just how ugly the San Diego Padres’ financial situation might be, there seems to be a counter-report about how, no, truly, it’s all fine and Juan Soto is totally not available.
This one comes from Bob Nightengale at USA Today, who writes that the Padres want to keep Juan Soto “at least for the first half” because (1) they want to see how they perform, and (2) he could have more trade value at the deadline than right now.
To the second one, I would say that’s highly debatable, especially because there are significant risks associated with waiting until the deadline to shop Juan Soto. To the first one, I would say, yes, I’m sure the Padres would love to keep the whole group together and see how they perform, but that’s THE ENTIRE ISSUE – they can’t keep it all together, financially speaking, so somebody has to go. Soto, with one year left before free agency, no inclination toward signing an extension, and about $33 million coming his way in 2024 – the year the Padres want to cut payroll – is the obvious guy.
So the report goes on to suggest the Padres have other ways to move money:
“If they have to make some tough decisions, GMs say, they wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres dangle shortstop Xander Bogaerts and outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. in creative deals to avoid trading Soto. They would like to move Jake Cronenworth, who signed a seven-year, $80 million extension in April.”
Come on. Come onnnnnn.
Bogaerts’ improvident deal from last winter is already way underwater. And I like Bogaerts! It’s just that he’s already 31, he’s already being considered for a move to first(!) base, and he has TEN YEARS left on his deal. The amount that the Padres would have to eat on that contract to make him tradable is probably in the very high eight digits, and maybe even approaching nine. Are they really going to do that? Does it save them enough in 2024 payroll anyway?
Tatis, 25 next year, is coming off a very successful move to right field, but he posted just a 113 wRC+, by far the lowest of his young career. That, in turn, came on the heels of a PED suspension, and he also has a long-standing shoulder issue that could create long-term concerns. And he’s got 11 years and $325 million left on his heavily back-loaded deal. He’s not even making $12 million in 2024, so an acquiring team is barely even helping the Padres’ payroll in the short-term, and is taking on maaaassive risk on the back-end. I’m not staying he’s not tradable, but certainly not for much value.
Cronenworth was good from 2020-2022, but hit just .229/.312/.378/92 wRC+ this past season at age 29. That, after what looked like a big step back in his peripherals in 2022, and mostly playing at first base in 2023, so it’s not clear where his longer-term defensive versatility stands. The Padres could move him only as a tag-along to a deal where they’re giving up substantial value, or where they eat a ton of the contract. Again, at that point, how much are they actually saving in 2024 payroll anyway?
These are not realistic options. This is, once again, a Padres front office that knows its back is against the wall, and wants to still get significant value for Juan Soto in trade. That’s all this is. Heck, I leave this moment EVEN MORE convinced that Soto is definitely being traded this offseason, and the trade return is not going to be gargantuan.
The Cubs, as you know by now, are going to be interested in talking to the Padres about Juan Soto.
