NEWSLETTER
MLB RUMORS — I hope this offseason follows the early-action pattern re-established last winter. That is to say, I hope most of this gets buttoned up in the next two months. And I think it might.
Why? Well, aside from Shohei Ohtani, there doesn’t seem to be too many linchpin pieces in circulation (guys that can individually jam up the market). Maybe Cody Bellinger slows things down as he holds out for a monster deal? Maybe the trade market gets held up by the Padres? But that’s really it. The pace could be peppy.
One other reason for optimism? The restricted posting window.
Posting Periods
Players coming over from the NPB and KBO have a limited 45-day window to sign a deal after being posted. That means Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and Jung Hoo Lee (three of MLB Trade Rumors top-15 free agents), among others, will not linger deep into the offseason. And that could spur activity elsewhere, as teams who miss out on those players scramble to get their next best option.
Of course, that all depends on when they’re posted! Lee, for example, might not be posted until Thanksgiving, giving him until January 10 to get a deal done. For what it’s worth, Yamamoto, who’ll be of greatest consequence in this respect, is expected to be posted before Thanksgiving.
I hope the Cubs make a push for Yamamoto, despite how much he’s going to cost. His youth and upside is a unique opportunity. He’s going to cost a fortune (but no draft pick compensation!), and a lot of teams will want him, but the Cubs are clearly all in on this window. It’s time to go big.
Yamamoto is projected to wind up in the $200M-$225M range, which would make him the biggest free agent deal in Cubs history. That is, until they sign Shohei Ohtani a couple weeks later. 🙂
Shohei Ohtani and Other Top Free Agent Predictions
Speaking of which … a trio of writers at The Athletic discuss the fit of his 12 potential suitors: Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays.
Here’s a small part of the Cubs section:
First Craig Counsell, now Ohtani?! Dropping Ohtani into this roster would not immediately make the Cubbies World Series favorites, but it certainly would make their lineup much more dangerous…The Cubs were in the bottom third in the league last season in OPS from the DH position. Ohtani occupying DH wouldn’t push out any core piece moving forward, either, though it would mean finding a defensive home for Morel — he played all over last season but most often DH — or shopping him as a trade candidate this winter.
Yeah, that all sounds good to me. As for the rest of the suitors, some thoughts:
So that leaves the Dodgers (front-runners), Giants (I can see it), and Cubs (the “sleeper pick”). The Cubs, not unlike the East Coast teams, might have to prove a little more than the Dodgers, Rangers, and Giants, who are more recent contenders, West Coast teams, or both. But I don’t think there’s NO chance for Chicago.
The crew at ESPN underwent a similar project for all the top free agents (Ohtani, Yamamoto, Bellinger, Aaron Nola, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery).
For Ohtani, the Dodgers wind up as the favorite (Rangers got one vote). Among the other guesses from Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, and David Schoenfield (in that order):
As you can see, the Cubs were mentioned for Nola and Chapman. Take a look at the full article for the reasoning. Meanwhile, I discussed Aaron Nola in detail here. And Matt Chapman in detail here.
What Padres Looking for in Juan Soto Trade
Jon Heyman is not convinced the Padres will move Juan Soto this offseason, which, hey, maybe not! Some recent reports suggested that they prefer to wait until the deadline, though I don’t think they’ll have that luxury, financially speaking.
If they DO look to trade him this offseason, Heyman believes the Padres will “want to get at least three great prospects back,” which … nah. One year of control at ~$33M simply does not require that level of cost.
That is, if I’m understanding what “great” means to him.
So let me put this all another way: IF trading for Juan Soto requires the Cubs to send Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton, and Matt Shaw (three “great prospects”), then, no, they shouldn’t do it. I just don’t think it will come anywhere close to that.
Plus, until that comment, the consensus was that the Padres would actually prefer big league ready help in return (i.e. not a prospect heavy package). That would mirror the the Mookie Betts trade from a few years ago, making a lot more sense. And that’s something I think the Cubs could and likely will explore.
