NEWSLETTER
Last week, I deduced what the San Diego Padres might ACTUALLY want in return for Juan Soto. And it turns out, I may have been spot on! Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and so on.
Here’s what I said last Wednesday …
“The Padres need to add SIGNIFICANTLY to their rotation, their internal options are few, the free agent market is too competitive, and they want to “pepper the roster” with young players making less than $1M a year.
The Padres won’t want to make Christopher Morel the center piece of a Juan Soto trade. They’ll want Jordan Wicks. Hayden Wesneski. Javier Assad. Ben Brown. Caleb Killian. Cade Horton (over my dead body). Basically, they’ll want any young starting pitcher that’s at the Triple-A level or higher. Someone that can help them compete next year, but won’t break the back. Maybe multiple someones.”
And her’s what Jeff Passan had to say today …
The only logical end point to all this is moving Soto, who’s expected to make around $33 million in his final year of arbitration….it’s a sound enough perspective for the Padres to have internally discussed their options if they do move Soto, sources told ESPN.
The obvious focus is on acquiring near-major-league-ready starting pitching, sources said. And teams rich in that include the Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, Drew Thorpe, Chase Hampton), Cubs (Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski) and Mariners (Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock).
What I was speculating then, Passan is reporting now: (1) The San Diego Padres will likely trade Juan Soto this offseason. (2) They have already discussed what they want in return. (3) And that discussion led them to a desire for cost-controlled, young starting pitching.
Oh, and a soft-No. 4 for you: It just so happens the Chicago Cubs are one of a very select few teams with the sort of pieces that could satisfy those needs!
You can note that, like we had hoped, Cade Horton “almost certainly” wouldn’t be moved by the Cubs this offseason, at least not in a deal for one pricey year of Juan Soto. And I’ll reiterate that Caleb Kilian likely has next to no redeemable trade value at the moment.
But each of Brown, Wicks, and Wesneski (and I’d add Javier Assad, though he wasn’t mentioned by Passan) is the sort of pre-arb starting pitcher the Padres are apparently seeking.
Note, however, that the Mariners and Yankees were also name-checked in this conversation and have both been previously connected to Juan Soto this offseason (especially the Yankees, who have already told the world they want to acquire more than one outfielder this winter).
Still, this is a small, enviable circle to be apart of. If there’s one perpetually limited and desirable resource in Major League Baseball it’s young, cost-controlled starting pitching. And for the first time in a VERY long time the Cubs actually have it. Trading from this depth, without touching the tip-top (Horton), and while they already have several other options (and an apparent desire to add in free agency), is a good idea. And I think we just learned it’s maybe a little more likely than we realized.
