NEWSLETTER
If the season started today, who would be the Chicago Cubs’ third baseman? It’s a question that thankfully doesn’t have to be answered until the season ACTUALLY starts, but the setup right now is something less than ideal, if not necessarily horrible.
Based on what we saw last year – but with an understanding that the Cubs now have a new manager – I would expected to see some platooning among Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Miles Mastrobuoni.
It’s possible that Madrigal stabilizes to a league-average bat, at which point he’s probably your regular starter thanks to the superior glove. It’s also possible that Wisdom’s defense rebounds, and he sees more time, given that the power really is game-changing. It’s also possible, though less likely, that Mastrobuoni’s bat keeps looking like it did in the second half last year, and maybe even more like he showed at Triple-A, and he gets a surprising volume of starts.
It’s also possible that Christopher Morel flips a switch and suddenly can play well enough at third base to stick there. That’d be the best outcome by far, but I don’t see any indication from the Cubs that Morel using his offseason to REALLY work at third base is on the docket. So I’m not counting on it.
Take that all together, and I’d say there’s at least a decent chance the Cubs add externally at third base. Maybe that’s a move in free agency for a bigger name like Matt Chapman or Jeimer Candelario, maybe it’s someone who gets non-tendered, or maybe it’s a surprise trade. I think it’s probably a little more likely that the Cubs go with a combination of the four guys above, but obviously an external addition is quite possible.
Here’s the question if the Cubs do add an every-day-ish starter at third base this offseason: do they keep all four of the other guys?
I could make a pretty easy argument that a decision on Morel is wholly independent of what happens at third base for obvious reasons. I think it’s also not too hard to argue that Mastrobuoni’s defensive versatility, lefty bat, baserunning, and – critically! – remaining option years make him pretty valuable as a depth guy, regardless of what happens at third.
But what about Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom? If the Cubs have added a starter at third – heck, maybe even if they don’t – are both of those guys actually still going to be on the roster come April? And if not, could the Cubs try to get some value in trade, given the dearth of positional talent overall on the market?
Well, that’s where I share this from Mark Feinsand at MLB.com, where he identifies the one player at each position who figures to be most actively discussed on the hot stove this year. The third baseman on the all-trade team? Nick Madrigal. And the discussion there ropes in Patrick Wisdom, too:
“Both Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom are arbitration-eligible this offseason, and while Madrigal is a great contact hitter who rarely strikes out and offers better defense at the hot corner, Wisdom has a huge advantage in the power department. Chicago could look to move one of the infielders to address another area on the roster.”
Perfectly sensible selections given all that I discussed above, though color me a little surprised that Madrigal/Wisdom is THE player selected for that list.
How much trade value would each guy have? Well, I think that depends a great deal on how much a trade partner believes in Madrigal’s glove (and ability to get enough base hits to prop up the bat) or Wisdom’s power (and ability to cut down on the strikeouts and play solid defense). Both are relatively cheap in arbitration (in the $2 to $3 million range at the high end, per MLBTR’s estimates), and are under control for three years. For some teams, that has a lot of value. It’s a conversation the Cubs should certainly be having. Maybe they could get a controlled middle reliever? An optionable glove-first catcher for extra depth? A low-level high-risk, high-upside, non-40-man prospect? All plausible from where I sit.
If the Cubs were going to shop these guys, in an ideal world, they would find a partner sooner rather than later. Maybe even as soon as Friday, since that’s the tender deadline. I don’t think either is at risk of being non-tendered, but ALL ELSE EQUAL, you’d probably rather someone else make that move, just in case.
Another lesser consideration here: the Cubs’ 40-man is full after they added three prospect pitchers last night. Because they are absolutely going to make additions in the offseason, they are going to have to clear some space one way or another. That’ll mean some non-tenders and waivers, yes, but hey, if you can make it happen through a trade for value, all the better.
