NEWSLETTER
With three open 40-man roster spots, the Chicago Cubs today opted to protect three prospects from next months Rule 5 Draft. Each of Michael Arias, Porter Hodge, and Bailey Horn were added to the 40-man roster today.
It’s a mild surprise to see the Cubs adding three pitchers here, but each of the three was at least at some risk of being selected next month in the draft, because each of the three has premium stuff. Sometimes, that’s all it takes for a rebuilding club to try to stash a pitcher in their bullpen, even if the pitcher has only been very low level in the minors or has not yet shown results at the higher levels.
That said, I am relieved to know the Cubs aren’t at risk for losing these guys.
Michael Arias, 21, took off this year with a combination of a fastball that has reached the upper-90s at times and a changeup that is probably big-league-ready at this moment. It’s a silly good pitch. Arias could start out the 2024 season at Double-A Tennessee, but he’s probably still a ways off from big league consideration, until and unless the Cubs tried him in relief. Right now, I don’t know that the Cubs should make that conversion. Although Arias did seem to fade a bit in his outings, he’s still so young that he could build up the endurance this offseason.
Porter Hodge, 22, is someone we’ve discussed a bit lately as a possible protection move. He did not get great results at Double-A this year necessarily, but he did get a load of strikeouts and show off a nasty cutter/slider that rated out extraordinarily well to the various pitch-analyzing systems. He pitched as a starter and a reliever last year, with relief coming later in the year. It’s possible he goes to Iowa in a full-time relief role and emerges as an up-down guy as soon as this season.
Bailey Horn, 25, is a lefty with a good fastball and a killer breaking ball, who pitched most of the year at Triple-A, but never quite locked in the command enough to break out. If he had, he would’ve been up with the big league team at some point. Given the quality of the stuff, it’s understandable that the Cubs feared another club might take him next month.
The only other prospect who seemed like he had a chance to be added today was catcher Pablo Aliendo, who really took a nice step forward offensively at Double-A this year. It would really, really sting to lose him in the Rule 5 draft, but the calculus here from the Cubs is that he is only 22, and it’s REALLY rare for a big league club to pluck a catcher that young straight from Double-A to put on their 26-man roster all year. It’s not inconceivable that a rebuilding club could do it at their back-up catcher spot, though. Also, Aliendo’s strikeout rate did top 30% this year, so he clearly does still have more work to do. Fingers crossed he’s still with the Cubs come January.
So the Cubs’ 40-man roster is full for the moment, but obviously that will not last. The non-tender deadline is coming on Friday, and there will be some non-tenders among both the arbitration-eligible ranks and pre-arb guys. The Cubs might also look to make a minor move off of the 40-man in the coming days and weeks. Eventually, they will have to have room to make free agent and trade additions. Obviously.
The full release from the Cubs on today’s moves:
“The Chicago Cubs today selected the contracts of left-handed pitcher Bailey Horn from Triple-A Iowa, right-handed pitcher Porter Hodge from Double-A Tennessee and right-handed pitcher Michael Arias from High-A South Bend. The Cubs 40-man roster now stands at 40 players.
Horn, 25, last season pitched to a 7-3 record with three saves and a 4.21 ERA (29 ER/62.0 IP) in 45 relief appearances between Tennessee and Iowa. He reached the Triple-A level for the first time in late April following six outings at Double-A, in which he held opponents to a .100 batting average and a 0.89 WHIP with five walks and 19 strikeouts.
Acquired from the White Sox for right-handed pitcher Ryan Tepera July 29, 2021, Horn is 11-9 with a 4.20 ERA (81 ER/173.2 IP), seven saves and 11.5 strikeouts per 9.0 innings in 99 career minor league games (14 starts) with the White Sox and Cubs organizations. He was named a 2022 Arizona Fall League Rising Star, allowing two earned runs in eight games (12.0 IP). Entering the 2021 campaign, the lefty was ranked as the No. 30 prospect in the White Sox system by MLB.com after being selected in the fifth round of the 2020 First Year Player Draft out of Auburn University (Ala.).
Hodge, 22, went 6-7 with a 5.13 ERA (46 ER/80.2 IP) and 103 strikeouts in 35 games (12 starts), pitching primarily in relief for the first time in his career. He led Double-A with 0.33 home runs per 9.0 innings (min. 80 IP) while his 11.5 strikeouts per 9.0 innings ranked ninth. He was named the Southern League Pitcher of the Month for May, pacing the league with a 1.64 ERA (min. 20 IP) and ranking third in strikeouts per 9.0 innings (13.09) and sixth in WHIP (1.05) during the month.
The six-foot four-inch Hodge is ranked as the No. 26 prospect in the Cubs organization by MLB.com. In 79 career minor league games (50 starts), he is 15-15 with a 4.34 ERA (120 ER/248.2 IP) and 312 strikeouts spanning four seasons. He was selected by the Cubs in the 13th round of the 2019 First-Year Player Draft out of Cottonwood High School in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Arias, who turns 22 tomorrow, posted a 4.09 ERA (37 ER/81.1 IP) in 22 starts between Single-A Myrtle Beach and South Bend. He was named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Week June 4 and pitched to a 2.55 ERA (12 ER/42.1 IP) and 1.16 WHIP in 11 outings with the Pelicans before being promoted. He averaged 12.2 strikeouts and 0.33 home runs per 9.0 innings across both levels.
A Santo Domingo, D.R., native, Arias is Chicago’s No. 12 prospect according to MLB.com. He is 5-15 with a 3.99 ERA (54 ER/121.2 IP) in 48 games (32 starts) across three seasons with the Cubs organization. Arias was signed by the Cubs to a minor league contract January 15, 2021, after spending parts of three seasons in the Dominican Summer League in Toronto’s organization.”
