The Los Angeles Dodgers are still everywhere front and center when Shohei Ohtani is discussed in the rumor mill, so I feel like I have to reiterate that here at the top. The Chicago Cubs are pretty clearly trying to be seriously involved in this process, but it just feels like one of those situations where you’re gonna have to roll three threes in a row to hit the jackpot. The Dodgers are the house, and barring a big-time surprise, this was all always pointing in that direction.
But it isn’t decided yet. There is still a chance here for the Cubs on Shohei Ohtani. So much of the process is going to be so secretive that even with the Dodgers, the majority of rumor-mongering is just thoughtful dot-connecting.
If not the Dodgers, why not the Cubs? Why not, indeed:
More of the latest …
Jesse Rogers reports that Shohei Ohtani is more likely for the Cubs than Cody Bellinger, which might get you extremely excited, but I tend to think that’s more reflective of the Cubs’ sincere efforts to land Ohtani and otherwise not being aggressive on Bellinger, rather than Rogers saying Ohtani is likely for the Cubs. Really doubt ANYONE would say anything like that right now.
That said, you can add Rogers’ report to the list that all indicate the Cubs really do want to try to sign Ohtani. The feeling I get from synthesizing all the reporting, combined with what you hear behind the scenes, is that the Cubs want Ohtani in a way that is not the same as, “Well, yeah, every team wants Ohtani.” Rather, you get the impression that Ohtani *is* what the Cubs are *actually* trying to do this offseason, and everything else comes second. I don’t think you structure your offseason that way unless you believe you have at least SOME meaningful chance at landing the guy (10%? 20%?).
Which is not to say the Cubs and the Dodgers are the only teams that are probably treating Ohtani this way. I could absolutely see the Giants and Mariners proceeding in the same way, and you see the Rangers keep coming up (TBD whether their TV situation gives them any pause on additional massive long-term deals). And it would be silly to rule out other major market teams like the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox without really knowing anything.
At least one exec sees the Blue Jays as a sleeper:
Maybe the more interesting thing in that Rosenthal report is this:
“But one problem for (the Blue Jays), and for that matter the Red Sox and Yankees, is that if Ohtani’s priority is winning, he might prefer a club outside the highly competitive AL East. And though the Jays’ home is the Rogers Centre, a ballpark with a retractable roof, teams in the West play in more reliable conditions than teams that play large chunks of games in the East. Ohtani, as he recovers from his second major elbow surgery, might fear disruptions in his schedule because of inclement weather.”
On the one hand, if that were all true, then the Cubs would have a very nice advantage playing in the decided-less-imposing NL Central. On the other hand, if weather is a sincere concern, then obviously the Midwest is going to be more erratic than, say, Southern California. (But hey, when the wind blows out at Wrigley, Shohei could hit like five homers that day. Tradeoffs!)
Robert Murray is another to offer an expectation that Ohtani could choose his team BEFORE the Winter Meetings. That makes some sense, since the teams that are seriously involved probably have him as the number one priority to such an extreme extent that there’s nothing else to wait around for. It’s “we want you, we want you more than anything else, and we’re happy to just wait for you to decide.” If that’s the case, then he’s going to have all serious offers in hand pretty quickly, and if it’s a situation where he already had a sense of the place(s) he wanted to go, then there’s just no reason for it to drag out too long. I’m so nervous.
A reminder overall, by the way: this process is almost certainly being kept as secret as possible by both the teams and by Ohtani’s camp (and Jeff Passan reported that leaks might even be held against a team). So the rumors that are out there must always be regarded cautiously. I have a feeling we’re getting really close to a misinformation period in the run-up to an actual publicized decision.
This was just something I was having fun with, because I was curious how fans view Ohtani and the Cubs’ obvious collection of needs for the 2024 team:
Just about where I thought this one would land, with a slight majority of fans seeing Ohtani as such a significant land that, even if it doesn’t set the Cubs up as well as they need for 2024, it’s worth it. Then you have a slim minority of fans who (rightly) say that Ohtani, alone, doesn’t get the Cubs where they need to be for 2024. They could still compete most likely, but they’d have some big holes and questions. For the record, I would’ve voted yes, but just barely. The long-term value wins out for me, even if I do agree that Ohtani, alone, doesn’t set the Cubs up to be a top-3 team or whatever in the NL.
Stray thing I keep thinking about on Shohei Ohtani – in his original pursuit, I don’t think anyone had the Angels as the most likely winner among his seven finalists at the time it was going down. In hindsight, it made a lot of sense, but at the time, we weren’t all seeing it that way.
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