NEWSLETTER
The Chicago Cubs are not officially “out” on Shohei Ohtani – Jed Hoyer says the Cubs have not been told that, and it’s not like they’re going to announce it right now – but yesterday was, overall, a pretty bad day for those of us who had hope. Multiple reports had the Cubs as, at a minimum, not feeling like it was going to happen for them. I’ll conclude in my own head that they’re technically still in, but it is extraordinarily unlikely that it happens.
Which means it could be time for the Cubs to quickly move on to other offseason focuses. The biggest, of course, being 25-year-old Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to whom the Cubs have been connected multiple times by multiple sources, and to whom the Cubs were expected to pivot if things went sideways with Ohtani. Just a couple days ago there was a report that the Cubs were being “very aggressive” on Yamamoto, in addition to Ohtani.
Here’s hoping we get some new rumors on that front in the wake of the Ohtani process moving along.
But the pivot to Yamamoto may not ultimately happen, and, somewhat unlike the most plausible/justifiable Ohtani explanation, it could be that the bidding on Yamamoto is simply reaches levels that don’t make a lot of sense.
From The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney:
“Yoshinobu Yamamoto has generated so much interest from both New York teams and other big-market franchises that the Cubs are not expected to proceed in those high-stakes negotiations. The early projections were optimistic because Yamamoto is only 25 years old and pitching is always in great demand. But Yamamoto is now expected to land a contract worth close to $300 million …. “
One quick point to make: aren’t the Cubs one of those “big-market franchises”? Aren’t they supposed to be involved in high-stakes negotiations for star players?
Whatever. Anyway.
To the main point, which Jon Heyman also wrote last night: Yamamoto’s price tag was originally expected to be around $200 million, but now it could top $300 million when you factor in the posting fee. Heck, it might hit that price BEFORE the posting fee is factored in. Is that a line past which Yamamoto simply no longer makes sense from a risk versus production perspective?
The answer of course is yes, but it’s just a matter of figuring out where that line is.
Keeping in mind that Jed Hoyer is categorically not going to show his hand about anything whatsoever, I did find this section from Jayson Stark’s piece to be interesting in how muted Hoyer’s response was:
“Is it fair to call Yamamoto unique? Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer couldn’t bring himself to use that word.
‘I don’t think he’s unique,’ said Hoyer, who also scouted Yamamoto in person last season. ‘I think he’s super-talented. I don’t think he’s unique. But I think certainly there have been a lot of really good pitchers that come here from Japan, and he’s certainly in that conversation.’
So was the journey to Japan to watch Yamamoto in person enough to provide that reassurance? Hoyer politely declined to get into anything he learned from that trip.”
Let’s just take Hoyer at his word for a moment, rather than thinking through the possible gamesmanship.
If Yamamoto isn’t seen as unique – a true one-off, unlike anyone who has ever come over before – then why would the Cubs spend $300+ million to sign him? His total cost could well wind up topping the $324 million Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees, so you’re talking about the largest pitching contract ever in the history of the sport for a pitcher who has not yet appeared in MLB. There are very good reasons to believe Yamamoto will be a strong MLB pitcher. But it’s all projection at this point. That is just a jarring level of risk.
Teams have budgets. Sucks, but true. Well, most teams, including the Cubs. And frankly I would agree with them if they decided there was a level at which they felt committing 15% of the annual budget for the next 10 years to Yamamoto was just too much, and too risky.
I don’t want to be TOO facile, because you can’t just assume you’ll sign all the other guys you want and there’s extra value in having talent concentrated in a single player, but the Cubs could get a whole lot of impact across multiple players for $300+ million. There’s certainly an argument that the Cubs would be much better off getting Shota Imanaga, Josh Hader, and Matt Chapman (or whoever – these are just names) for $300 million, you know?
We’ll see if the Cubs are actually “out” on Yamamoto now, too, or whether they try to stay involved at the periphery. My gut says $300+ million, all context considered, is just going to be too much for the Cubs to risk on Yamamoto – who, by the way, may prefer the coasts in any case. That’s certainly been the buzz.
Still, you can’t ignore that 25-year-old potential aces don’t come available very often for only money, even if it’s a wholllllle lot of money. The guy has been overwhelmingly dominant the last three years in Japan, and he could wind up very good in MLB for a very long time. The Cubs would be right to stay involved, though I suppose they will have to be quick to make another pivot decision if they see the price tag going past a level that they project his performance to justify.
