NEWSLETTER
Today, the Minnesota Twins signed right-hander Josh Staumont to a 1-year deal. Seems insignificant, but it’s actually pretty darn notable.
Why?
Because, with that Twins move, the Chicago Cubs were left all alone:
The Chicago Cubs are now the only team NOT to add a single big leaguer this offseason. Pretty wild as we sit here on December 27.
Sure, a week from now, we could wake up to news that the Cubs are signing free agents Cody Bellinger and Rhys Hoskins to play center field and first base in 2024. A day later, we could learn that they’re also trading for Shane Bieber, signing free agent starter Jordan Montgomery, and nearing a deal with free agent reliever Robert Stephenson. BOOM. Just like that, the offseason would look mighty different, right?
Well, yes. It would. I think we’d all generally agree that’d be a pretty solid offseason overall. Perhaps not as impactful as the one we were expecting after the Cubs swiped Craig Counsell and signed him to the largest managerial contract in baseball history. Still … I do think it’d be seen as good enough. And all that stuff CAN still happen. Those guys above are all still available.
Still, I’m sorry … the mere HOPE of pulling off a crazy string of deals like that just won’t sustain me right now.
If it works for you, God bless. You can fan how you want. Truly. Maybe we’ll all look back on this blog and laugh at the silly concerns I had here at the end of December. But I can’t shake the feeling that we are (or rather, Jed is) playing a dangerous game that sits just behind caution and value and patience.
Because the truth is, it can still work. I know it. I acknowledge it.
But with every additional player that comes off the board — even the guys to whom the Cubs are NOT connected — the chances of making an impact this offseason dwindle. The paths toward an offseason where the Cubs actually hit all the spots they really need to hit are getting narrower by the day.
Moreover, the 2023 season should serve as a reminder of how that tempered approach — the one where you wait for your guys and hold tightly to your valuations — could leave you one game short of the playoffs, with fewer prospects after the trade deadline, and without a top draft pick to hold onto. Not a great place to be.
I’m not saying the Cubs definitely should have signed Chris Bassitt (33 starts, 3.60 ERA, 200 IP) or Kodai Senga (29 starts, 2.98 ERA) last offseason, but they certainly could have. I’m not saying they should have tried harder to land catcher Sean Murphy (129 wRC+, 4.2 WAR), but he was available and would have made an enormous impact. And the what ifs can go on and on from there, both last offseason and this.
Sometimes, it all works out and you get Dansby Swanson for over $100M less than Xander Bogaerts ($280M) or Trea Turner ($300M) while avoiding the Carlos Correa mess. But sometimes, you go home without landing the big player that won’t be available for the rest of his career … and you finish one game short of the playoffs.
So again, I’m not freaking out. There certainly is a lot offseason left and the Cubs could still make it all work. But it’s simply correct to say that it gets increasingly difficult to pull off with every additional day of waiting and free agent signing reported. And again, the Cubs are the ONLY team whose offseason maneuvering hasn’t yet begun.
