NEWSLETTER
The Chicago Cubs haven’t really been connected to free agent designated hitter J.D. Martinez much, if at all, this offseason. I don’t know that there’s a great fit there, and the Cubs’ attentions would understandably be focused elsewhere (SIGN CODY).
But, I figured you’d want to hear about this, as the “one other team to keep an eye out for” mentioned at the end of the clip and teased in the tweet is indeed the Cubs:
There is a superficial fit here, at least insofar as the Cubs need to add an impact bat, and Martinez has historically been one. Although he’s now 36, Martinez was still raking last year, going .271/.321/.572/135 wRC+ for the Dodgers, including 33 homers in 113 games.
That was something of a bounce-back year for Martinez, though, after hitting .269/.337/.469/115 wRC+ the three seasons prior. So you’d have to have some confidence that last year (despite its 31.1% K rate) was closer to what you’d get in 2024 than the three years before it. I could be talked into it, though, since those three previous years’ numbers are REALLY dragged down by a terrible 2020 showing in the pandemic season, and how much stock are we putting in numbers from that season?
For what it’s worth, Martinez’s 2023 wOBA just about match his xwOBA, and his barrel rate and hard-hit rate were bonkers high. He earned his 2023 numbers.
Double for-what-it’s-worth, though, is that the projection systems uniformly see a big fall-off for Martinez in 2024, with the wRC+ figures in the 105 to 114 range. So that wouldn’t necessarily be a huge impact.
All that said, J.D. Martinez still figures to be a good bat in 2024, still figures to hit a lot of home runs, and still figures to improve a lot of teams out there. If he hits like he did last year, the Cubs would love to have that bat available.
The fit gets a murkier when you consider that Martinez is exclusively a DH at this point, and the Cubs are already pretty right-handed (right now, Mike Tauchman and Michael Busch would be the only semi-regulars who bat lefty, and then you have Ian Happ switch-hitting). Ideally, they’d be adding a lefty impact bat for better balance, and somewhere other than DH. Moreover, if Christopher Morel doesn’t have a position, it’s possible most of his starts would be coming at DH. You don’t want to have to sit him regularly to accommodate Martinez, all else equal. Morel, 24, needs to be in the lineup almost every day. Period. Unless he were traded, I suppose, but I prefer not to go that route.
(Also, as an aside: the Cubs do have a similarly-projected hitter already in Patrick Wisdom, who is four years younger, who is already under contract, and whose 2024 projections are only slightly worse than Martinez’s. The projections are only projections, and I would definitely bet on Martinez being the better bat in 2024. Probably quite a bit better. But SO much better that you choose him over other possible additions, and then try to squeeze him into playing time? Closer call. Just had to mention it, parenthetical style.)
That’s not to say you couldn’t make it work with Martinez if you got creative. Forget the lefty thing for a minute, because at some point, you have to just get a bat in the door. Maybe you could start Martinez at DH four or five days a week, and Morel starts there the other one or two days. And on, say, three or four of the days that Martinez is at DH, you use Morel around the other positions to give a guy a rest. So Martinez is an almost every-day DH, and Morel is an almost every-day starter. You COULD make it work, and that assumes no injuries that organically clarify.
Of course, the easier path would be if Morel were starting at third base, but again, until we get a sense from the Cubs that it’s something they’re seriously considering, I won’t bank on it.
All in all, Martinez is an imperfect fit, but the bat is highly desirable. Maybe you get the bat and figure out how to make it work when you absolutely have to on Opening Day.
