NEWSLETTER
For the first time, we get to talk about the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) in relation to the Chicago Cubs. Heading into the 2024 season, the Cubs now do have an outside chance of netting an extra draft pick under those rules.
As you may recall, the new CBA implement a rule by which teams could pick up a draft pick at the end of the first round if they carried a top prospect on their Opening Day roster, and then that prospect went on to either (1) win Rookie of the Year that year, or (2) finish top-3 in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to reaching arbitration. The idea of the PPI was that it could be a tiebreaker for teams that were on the fence about opening the year with a top prospect on the roster, or holding him back for a few weeks in order to gain an extra year of control.
The Cubs have some top prospects on the way, of course, so it’s worth confirming which of them will be eligible for the PPI.
To be eligible, the player must still have rookie eligibility, must appear on at least two of the preseason top-100 prospect lists from Baseball America, ESPN, or MLB Pipeline, and must not have made his big league debut previously with a different organization. That third one is per Baseball America, and it’s the first time I’d heard it – BA notes that they’ve reached out to MLB to confirm. And that one matters a great deal to the Cubs, because Michael Busch, who debuted for the Dodgers last year, would otherwise qualify for the PPI, and he’ll definitely be on the Cubs’ Opening Day roster.
So then, excluding Busch for now, which Cubs prospects are eligible for the PPI? Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton, Matt Shaw, and Owen Caissie.
I think it is highly unlikely that any of Horton, Shaw, or Caissie open the season on the big league roster, barring an absolute avalanche of injuries in the spring. So I don’t think them being PPI eligible is going to move the needle on anything for the Cubs. Each will be up with the big league team when he is ready to contribute, and there’s a spot for him to contribute.
I expect to see Horton as some point this year, probably in the second half. Shaw is a maybe – very hard to predict, give his limited experience but rapid ascent last year – and Caissie is much more likely to spend the entire year at Triple-A Iowa. If he comes up, my guess is it would be at the end of the year (he’s Rule 5 eligible after this season, by the way, so he’s gotta be added to the 40-man roster before November anyway).
As for Pete Crow-Armstrong, though, I think you already know the score. He has limited pro experience overall, is still very young, and doesn’t have a lot of time under his belt at Triple-A. He also has an impact big league glove in center field, and it’s at least conceivable that he’s made adjustments over the offseason that could put him in a position to at least be playable at the plate by Opening Day.
In other words, there’s a chance PCA would be on the Opening Day roster regardless of PPI. In his case, then, it could wind up the intended tiebreaker.
Two huge caveats, of course: (1) if Cody Bellinger re-signs, the Cubs will be far more inclined to have PCA open the season at Iowa to continue working at the plate for a little while longer; and (2) winning the Rookie of the Year this season in the National League is gonna be a beeeetch because of the existence of Yoshinobu Yamamoto. So it might be a matter of PCA finishing top-3 in MVP voting the next few years. Certainly possible. But probably unlikely.
Jordan Wicks was on only one of the three qualifying top-100 lists, and thus can’t qualify for the PPI. So that sucks. He has a chance to open the season in the big league rotation, obviously, but now he cannot net the Cubs a draft pick if he really blows up this year, or in the years ahead.
Guys like Kevin Alcántara and James Triantos would also need to be on a second top-100 to qualify, though neither was going to debut with the big league team this year anyway. So hopefully they make multiple top-100s next year!
