This week, in addition to being about his looming, absent presence at Cubs Spring Training, has been all about reporters and pundits wondering what the market is going to be for Cody Bellinger.
Some of that has taken on the sound of a market of one team, at least among the serious suitors: the Cubs. That isn’t to say other clubs wouldn’t gladly take a bargain if Bellinger had to go that route, but it is to say that many believe there is simply not some team out there willing to offer up a $200+ million long-term deal. Instead, some believe the Cubs are the only team willing to make a serious, long-ish-term (but not very long-term!) offer. It’s just that whatever they are offering is still not particularly close to what Scott Boras and Cody Bellinger are seeking.
Jon Heyman appeared today on Mully & Haugh on 670 The Score, and was asked about all of this. Some of his comments, paraphrased:
As a preliminary matter, Heyman noted that he does not think any of the Boras Four are particularly close to signing. There had been some rumors that maybe the Yankees were getting close with Blake Snell – and then maybe that would trigger more movement – but it does’t sound like Heyman has heard that.
When asked why the Cubs should bid against themselves if there isn’t a wider market for Bellinger, Heyman kind of pushed back on the idea that there definitely isn’t a wider market. The fact that nobody in this group is signing (Bellinger and Matt Chapman included) maybe suggests that teams aren’t seriously involved, but the Cubs may not know that for certain. So by holding the line, you’re gambling that Bellinger doesn’t sign somewhere else in the meantime.
(My response to that point would be that, while it’s all correct, it’s just about impossible for me to believe that Boras – at the urging of Bellinger – would not at least take any other offer to the Cubs to try to get them to beat it before Bellinger signs elsewhere. And since that hasn’t happened yet, it is a safe assumption in my book that there are currently no other serious, long-term suitors at the table.)
Heyman wondered whether at some point the Angels “wake up” and make a big move, or whether the Blue Jays decide to add another bat. It sounded pretty soft, though, and my sense was not that Heyman was saying these are active bidders on Bellinger.
While Bellinger isn’t a perfect player and has had ups and downs, Heyman opined that a number of other teams around baseball would be very happy to have him. So he would not guarantee that Bellinger has no other options besides the Cubs, and you can’t rule out the possibility he does wind up signing somewhere else.
That was the comment that was the source of this tweet, by the way:
My reaction when I saw the tweet was that we already know Bellinger likely has options out there – if he is willing to take a short-term bargain deal, TONS of teams would want him! – it’s that we question whether any other team is willing to go 5+ years or whatever. And it’s important to say, in context, there was nothing in Heyman’s comments that would disagree with this idea. All Heyman was saying is that Bellinger is a good and versatile player, so obviously lots of teams would want to have him. It was not a comment on how likely that is, or what the contract levels would be, or anything like that.
As far as a timeline goes, I got the sense that Heyman is like everyone else: just not sure. He did say that Bellinger probably still has some patience left, since Spring Training only just started. Heyman believes Bellinger will get a good deal eventually, and will not have to settle for a very short-term deal like many other remaining free agents.
The Cubs almost certainly have a lot of patience left, too, for what that’s worth. I don’t believe for a second that they’d be happy about going into the season without Bellinger back, but we do know they have the pieces in place to do it. And if they’re going to stand firm on their offer, then they have to be serious about their ability to start the season without him.
It just seems like everyone on the outside (and probably many on the inside, too) is operating in a vacuum of information. There’s just so much we don’t know.
The longer this goes on – by which I mean not only Bellinger’s free agency, but the sense that teams outside of the Cubs aren’t really pushing – it makes me wonder all the more what the Cubs offer is. There have been reports that there hasn’t been an OFFICIAL offer, mind you, and Tom Ricketts indicated this week that serious negotiations haven’t taken place. But I’m operating on the informed assumption that the Cubs have at least let the parameters be known. General number of years. General AAV. General guarantee.
I’d just like to know are we talking about the Cubs holding firm on something like four years and $100 million? Or even lower? Then I could certainly understand Bellinger and Boras continuing to wait. Or are we talking about something like six years and $150 million? Or even higher? Then I would think it’s hard to imagine Bellinger doing much better with another club (or the Cubs going much higher). In the absence of that information, it’s hard for me to have an opinion on whether the Cubs are doing the “right” thing at the moment, or if Bellinger and Boras are doing the “right” thing at the moment.
All we know for sure is that the whole group of them is not doing “the” thing at the moment.
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