NEWSLETTER
Being that Roki Sasaki is just 22 years old and already one of the best pitchers in the world, you can safely assume the whole of the baseball world will be tracking him closely this year. And since rumors have continued to percolate that he very well could be posted by his NPB team after this season, instantly making him the top free agent on the market, the interest is going to be that much more overwhelming all season long.
Cubs Scouting Roki Sasaki
In that case, I expect a number of updates like this:
It’s good that the Cubs are already scouting Roki Sasaki (as they probably have in the past as part of their normal due diligence in Japan), but we’re going to see a lot of that this year. Lots of teams scouting him. Lots of interest. It would be absurd if the Cubs weren’t checking in.
As for his performance:
111 pitches in April. A career high.
I know that part of the NPB game is to work deeper in games (with fewer starts), and I know Roki Sasaki is the best pitcher in the league and thus gives the team the best chance to win in every inning he pitches. But eesh.
That’s a lot of pitches so early in the season, and it makes me wonder if his team, knowing that he’s likely to jump – AND knowing that they cannot get a huge posting fee thanks to him still being subject to IFA spending limits – is going to grind the heck out of him this year. There’s not much reason to project against 2025 wear-and-tear if you think Sasaki is gone after 2024 (other than just not doing that to a person), and they want to win this year while they still have him.
Not that the Cubs, or any other team, would avoid signing one of the best young pitchers on the planet because of a year of heavy usage, if he indeed is posted after this season. Since Roki Sasaki is subject to IFA limits (i.e., there’s a hard-capped bonus pool available for each team to use when signing international free agents under age-25, and then the player is simply in your org on normal team control like any other player), every team in baseball can afford him.
Thus, it’s worthwhile for every MLB team to at least check in, make their interest known, and keep tabs on Sasaki throughout the year. I think the Cubs, with their success in recruiting other Japanese players, would have a somewhat better shot with Sasaki than a number of other clubs.
(For now I’m not really looking at the money side of things, because Sasaki simply cannot sign for a huge number no matter what. The money just won’t matter that much. Teams are able to trade for pool space to max out their 2025 pool (if he signs after January 15) in the $10 million range total, or their 2024 pool (if he signs before December 15) in the $5 million range total. He’s gonna pick his team, and then they’ll figure out how to get him as much money as possible – he’s not choosing Team A over Team B because of a small difference in bonus.)
Dodgers Favorited … Because Of Course
Now for the reality check: nobody anywhere is betting on a team other than the Dodgers. It’s frustrating and would be galling to see them get another superstar – this time on what amounts to an extreme sweetheart deal – but we should all be prepared for that to become the reality.
‘Just when you think the Dodgers can’t possibly sign any more stars, several GMs believe that Roki Sasaki, 22, one of the best pitchers in the world, already has plans to sign with the Dodgers after the season.
“Every team in baseball wants this guy,” one GM told USA TODAY Sports, “but there’s no way he’s going anywhere else but the Dodgers. We all know it.”‘
Sure, sure, a lot can happen over a year. And I’ll reiterate that the Cubs have done well to make themselves and Chicago into something of a POSSIBLE destination for top Japanese players. But the Dodgers have done it even better, have even more superstar power, and have the obvious geographic advantage. I’m not saying it’s a Cubs-Dodgers race for Roki Sasaki – there will be so many other interested teams TRYING to get seriously involved – but even if it were, there would be little reason to bet against the Dodgers.
