NEWSLETTER
It’s quite a jarring polarity right now between the Chicago Cubs’ starting pitchers on the one hand, and the Chicago Cubs’ relief pitchers on the other hand. The starters, obviously, have been unbelievably good. The relievers, by contrast, have struggled mightily. Jed Hoyer is on the case, but it’s probably going to be a little while yet before he can make a trade.
The current starting rotation is working on a 23-inning scoreless streak after Justin Steele’s return last night and their dominant performances this weekend against the Brewers. It’s something the Cubs haven’t done in over 120 years:
The ERAs for the current group are just silly:
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From Justin Steele (Cubs.com): “It’s kind of hard to put it into words. I feel like everybody in the rotation that was pitching while I was gone is like Top 10 in MLB right now, as far as ERAs go. The rotation’s been almost flawless as of late, so you just kind of have to tip your hat. It’s a testament to the depth we have.”
From Jameson Taillon (Cubs.com): “We’ve got six, seven really legit options, which is super exciting. If you come in to play us for a series, it’s not like you can circle a guy and be like, ‘Man, I hope we get him, or miss him.’ Hopefully, you come in and it’s like, ‘Man, we’ve got three tough guys every series.’”
Overall, the Cubs’ starting staff sports a 3.04 ERA, third best in baseball. AND THAT INCLUDES the 12.00 ERA that Kyle Hendricks is adding to the pot. Realistically, it could not have gone better in the rotation so far this year.
By contrast, the bullpen’s ERA is a whopping 4.81, sixth worst in baseball. They are “only” 11th worst by FIP, so maybe you could argue there’s a little bad luck baked in (but, of course, you’d have to make the same argument in the other direction for the starting rotation!).
One positive on the bullpen side, if you’re willing to take it, is that most of the worst offenders – in terms of high ERA contributions, anyway – are in evolving, or explainable circumstances. The guys over 5.00 in bullpen ERA are Adbert Alzolay (being downshifted into low leverage), Daniel Palencia (could be optioned), Ben Brown (bullpen ERA being massively inflated by that debut in Texas), Richard Lovelady (dude has a 1.78(!) FIP and his ERA is bs thanks to those “hits” last night), Luke Little (optioned), and Jose Cuas (optioned).
When you actually look at the current bullpen – and stop thinking about it in the abstract as a singular unit – it’s possible things could get better quickly. You have Mark Leiter Jr. pitching like a star. You have Hector Neris getting results and HOPEFULLY regressing toward his career mean in the peripherals. You have Yency Almonte looking actually quite good. You have Colten Brewer doing well, albeit in low-leverage. And then you have Alzolay, Palencia, Brown, and Lovelady. There are spots where the Cubs could ABSOLUTELY improve externally, but a lot is going to happen organically internally as Drew Smyly, Jordan Wicks, and Kyle Hendricks return (and Cade Horton rises?), either contributing in the bullpen or pushing a good arm into the bullpen.
You also still have Keegan Thompson and Little and Cuas on the 40-man, who could come back up if they get on a heater. And maybe Porter Hodge or Michael Arias, also on the 40-man, are surprise breakouts. Or some other guys no yet on the 40-man. It happens pretty much every year.
I don’t know. I don’t want it to sound like I’m selling this group as A Good Bullpen Actually. No such claim here. Instead, I just think they could, and probably will, do a little better than they have the last few weeks, when it’s been a nightmare ride almost every game.
