NEWSLETTER
The NFC East running back carousel made a stop in Philadelphia on Monday, March, 12th. Saquon Barkley inked a 3-year, $37.7 million contract that could be worth up to $46.75M and includes $26M fully guaranteed at signing with the Eagles. Let’s dissect the factors influencing his fantasy football outlook in the City of Brotherly Love.
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Saquon Barkley Career Trajectory
Drafted second overall in 2018, Barkley burst onto the scene with a historic rookie season, amassing over 2,000 scrimmage yards and establishing himself as a fantasy football force. However, injuries became a recurring theme, limiting him to just 28 games between 2019 and 2021. While his explosiveness may have appeared to diminish, the past two seasons have shown a return to form. Saquon Barkley has remained relatively healthy, surpassing 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns in both years.
Notably, despite playing behind a subpar offensive line in New York, he ranked fourth among running backs in rushing yards over expectation according to Next Gen Stats. This translated to consistent production – an RB5 finish in fantasy PPG in 2022 and an RB9 finish in 2023.
Saquon Barkley’s Fit in Philly
The Eagles provide a dream landing spot for Saquon Barkley. Their offensive line is arguably the best in the league, ranking third in PFF’s run-blocking grade and first in ESPN’s run-block win rate in 2023. While the departure of Jason Kelce is a significant loss, the Eagles remain primed to offer Barkley a significant upgrade in blocking compared to his time with the Giants (ranked 30th and 31st in the aforementioned categories).
Projecting Barkley’s workload, we can look at D’Andre Swift’s role in the Eagles’ 2023 offense as a blueprint. Swift posted 1,049 rushing yards on 229 carries, translating to a top-24 finish at the running back position. Given Swift’s depressed draft capital compared to Barkley, it’s reasonable to expect Barkley to be the clear RB1 in Philadelphia.
His hefty contract further bolsters this notion. Assuming he remains healthy, Saquon Barkley could see upwards of 275 touches, a recipe for significant fantasy production behind a dominant offensive line and within a high-powered offense.
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The Fantasy Outlook of Saquon Barkley
Barkley’s fantasy floor should be relatively high due to volume and talent, but his ceiling might be hampered by touchdown production. Jalen Hurts, notorious for his “Tush Push” rushing touchdown prowess (league-leading 38 touchdowns on the ground since 2021), could limit Barkley’s opportunities in the red zone. Additionally, mobile quarterbacks like Hurts tend to scramble more often, potentially leading to a slight dip in Barkley’s receiving volume. While Hurts’ rushing ability keeps defenses honest, fantasy managers should temper expectations regarding Barkley’s touchdown numbers compared to other elite running backs.
Saquon Barkley should be considered a fantasy RB1 heading into the 2024 season and is currently listed as the RB8 in 4for4’s Never-Too-Early rankings. The only remaining back in the rushing room for the Eagles is Kenneth Gainwell who falls down to RB58 in 4for4’s rankings.
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The Fallout for the Giants
The departure of Saquon Barkley leaves a massive void in the Giants’ offense. With Daniel Jones’ hefty contract extension and limited weapons, the outlook appears bleak from both a real and fantasy football perspective. Devin Singletary joined the fold via free agency from Houston and might see high volume, but the Giants’ projected offensive struggles could render him a “high volume, low production” fantasy option. Unless New York drafts a potential high-upside rookie receiver like Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze in the 2024 NFL Draft, fantasy managers might be wise to avoid the Giants’ offensive weapons in 2024.
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