NEWSLETTER
On Monday, March 11, Kirk Cousins agreed to a four-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons. He starts a new chapter with the Falcons offense now led by Zac Robinson, a Rams’ Swiss Army coach for the last two years. Let’s delve into the fantasy football implications for Cousins and the Falcons’ dynamic young receiving corps.
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The Storied Career of Kirk Cousins
Since becoming a full-time starter in 2015, Kirk Cousins has quietly established himself as a consistently productive quarterback. Among active signal-callers with over 1,000 career pass attempts, Cousins ranks sixth in adjusted yards per attempt (7.8) and touchdown rate (5.35), all while boasting a remarkably low interception rate (ninth-lowest).
Before an Achilles tear in 2023 derailed his season, Cousins was on pace for another solid year. He was on track to be among the top in passing yards and touchdowns while maintaining his trademark efficiency. With ample time to recover and a talented receiving corps at his disposal, Cousins is poised to return to form.
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Atlanta’s Passing Game Outlook with Kirk Cousins
The 2023 Falcons’ passing game was forgettable under Arthur Smith’s run-heavy scheme and underwhelming quarterback play. They ranked last in passing rate over expectation and a dismal 27th in total EPA per play. This stagnation frustrated fantasy managers, particularly with talented players like Kyle Pitts and Drake London underperforming.
The arrival of Cousins and Robinson promises a revitalized passing attack with a focus on efficiency and explosiveness. Robinson, known for his innovative schemes with LA, figures to implement a system that maximizes Cousins’ strengths and empowers the playmakers.
This offensive transformation presents a golden opportunity for Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and rookie back Bijan Robinson. These three weapons saw the most targets in Atlanta in 2023 (all exceeding 86) and stand to benefit from the increased volume and efficiency of a Cousins-led offense.
London, projected as a potential WR1 with a 30% target share, could be the biggest beneficiary. Pitts, while coming off a disappointing season, boasts elite talent and target volume (169 targets in two seasons). A more efficient Cousins under center could unlock his eliteness, transforming him from a boom-or-bust option to a reliable TE1.
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The Falcons Fantasy Football Outlook
Cousins finished his shortened 2023 season averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game, good enough for a QB6 finish on a per-game basis. With virtually no mobility, rounding 40 in age, and coming off of a torn Achilles, expect fringe QB1 output. Ranked as the QB12 in 4for4’s Never Too Early Rankings Cousins presents a solid value pick with potential for top-10 production.
The players boasting the most upside relative to 2023’s outcome are London and Pitts, who finished 46th and 16th at their respective positions in half-PPR formats. Unless Atlanta spends a first-round pick on a wideout, London could approach a 30% target share, which means WR1 upsdie with Cousins under center. He’s currently ranked as 4for4’s WR20.
Pitts had a down 2023 after a high-volume rookie year but he was hampered by play-calling, quarterback play, and injuries. Cousins should boost his efficiency and he can easily surpass 100 targets, translating to a top 10 outcome.
While the Falcons might shift towards a pass-heavy approach, Bijan Robinson shouldn’t be overlooked. He could see an even larger share of the rushing workload and benefit from a more efficient offense. His catching prowess should translate well to the new system, potentially propelling him into top-five fantasy territory, as he’s the RB4 in early ranks.
