The Fantasy Football Impact of Aaron Jones to the Vikings: RB2 Redemption or Risky Realignment?

On March 12th, a changing of the guard occurred within the NFC North. Veteran running back Aaron Jones landed a one-year, $7 million deal with the Minnesota Vikings, leaving his longtime home with the Green Bay Packers. The fantasy football impact of Aaron Jones to the Vikings will likely be massive. This move bolsters a Vikings backfield that’s been searching for stability since Dalvin Cook’s departure in 2022. Let’s delve into how this signing impacts Jones’ fantasy outlook and the Vikings’ backfield landscape.

The Fantasy Football Impact of Aaron Jones to the Vikings

While injuries limited Jones to just 11 games in 2023, his efficiency remained impressive. He averaged a solid 4.8 yards per carry, ranking eighth among qualified running backs. Even with a diminished workload, Jones displayed his receiving prowess, averaging 3.8 targets per game. However, his touchdown production, a major fantasy factor, dipped significantly. From 2019-2021, Jones was a touchdown machine, ranking third in rushing touchdowns among NFL running backs. This past season, however, he struggled to find the end zone, both on the ground and through the air.

A Look at Aaron Jones’ Performance Over the Past Five Seasons

Despite missing games in 2023 due to injury, Aaron Jones has consistently produced throughout his career. Here’s a breakdown of his stats from the past five seasons:

  • 2019: In 16 games, Jones rushed for 1,084 yards on 236 attempts (18.1 fantasy points per game, ranking RB4). He also caught 49 passes for 474 yards and added 19 touchdowns (both rushing and receiving).
  • 2020: Jones played in 14 games, recording 1,104 rushing yards on 201 carries (16.8 fantasy points per game, ranking RB5). He added 47 receptions for 355 yards and 11 touchdowns.
  • 2021: Appearing in 15 games, Jones rushed for 799 yards on 171 attempts (13.5 fantasy points per game, ranking RB14). His receiving numbers remained steady with 52 catches for 391 yards, but the touchdowns dipped to 13.
  • 2022: Despite a full 17-game season, Jones’ rushing yards increased to 1,121 on 213 carries (12.8 fantasy points per game, ranking RB12). However, his receiving numbers dipped slightly to 59 catches for 395 yards, and touchdowns again fell to just 7.
  • 2023: Injuries limited Jones to only 11 games. He rushed for 656 yards on 142 attempts (10.9 fantasy points per game, ranking RB27). His receiving stats remained consistent with 30 receptions for 233 yards, but touchdowns plummeted to just 3.
  • The Fantasy Football Impact of Aaron Jones to the Vikings: Key Takeaways from Jones’ Stats

    It’s important to note that while Jones’ overall production dipped in 2023 due to injuries, his efficiency remained high. His yards per carry average stayed strong, and his receiving role continued to be a factor in his fantasy value. However, the significant drop in touchdowns is a major concern.

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    A Change of Scenery in Minnesota for Aaron Jones

    While the Vikings’ offensive line and skill position talent rival what Jones had in Green Bay, the quarterback situation remains a major question mark. With Sam Darnold potentially taking the starting snaps, Jones might not see the same scoring opportunities he enjoyed with Aaron Rodgers. This lack of a proven passer lowers Jones’ fantasy ceiling.

    The Fantasy Football Impact of Aaron Jones to the Vikings
    (Photo: Getty Images)

    The Fantasy Football Impact of Aaron Jones to the Vikings: How Does Jones Fit with the Vikings?

    Jones’ impressive finish to the 2023 season, where he eclipsed 100 yards rushing in five straight games, demonstrates his ability to handle a significant workload. The Vikings’ $7 million deal suggests they view him as their clear-cut RB1. Compared to incumbent Ty Chandler, Jones boasts superior efficiency and receiving ability. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry compared to Chandler’s 4.5 and creates more yards after contact (3.35 yards compared to Chandler’s 2.86). Jones also breaks tackles at a higher rate and has more runs of 10 yards or more than Chandler.

    Chandler will likely serve as a rotational back, offering Jones some relief.

    The Fantasy Football Impact of Aaron Jones to the Vikings: Weighing the Pros and Cons

    While Jones finds himself in a potentially better role with the Vikings, the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback situation dampens his fantasy potential. He’s currently projected as a fringe RB2/RB3.

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    written by

    Connor Allen has analyzed sports betting, fantasy football, and the NFL since 2010. He was published in Warren Sharp's annual book and used to work at NBC's Rotoworld. Most recently he launched the betting subscription at 4for4.com where he handicaps NFL Player Props. He currently resides in Chicago after graduating from Illinois Wesleyan University. Prior to being full time in the sports media industry, Connor owned a catering and food company.

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