NEWSLETTER
Not only is The Masters the most beloved and distinguished tournament in golf, but it is also the only major championship that is played at the same course every single year. With “course history” being a relevant topic for every PGA Tour event, its importance this week takes on an added proportion. According to DataGolf, course history is the most predictive at Augusta National compared to any other Tour course by a large margin.
Even though trends were meant to be broken, these specific tendencies for Augusta National have actual relevance with regard to the recipe that it takes to have success in winning The Masters. They are not random facts or based on recency bias. Though the sample size would preferably be larger, the majority go back in time 13-plus years with, at worst, a 79% positive rate. And while some of these trends (like a golfer’s age or world ranking) are not necessarily predictive, they still hold meaning and value when trying to fit together all the pieces of the puzzle when analyzing which players best fit the winners’ profile.
Instead of eliminating players because they do not fit one or more of the 19 trends below, it makes much more sense to add up the total and see which players fit the greatest number. As you can imagine, the golfers from the LIV Golf League will be at a disadvantage in some of these, especially the ones related to current form. For the metric-related trends (driving distance, putting, par 5 scoring, etc), in order to keep this as fair as possible, the 2021 PGA season rankings were used for the LIV players. Thus, we embark on the journey to see which of the 88 players in the Masters’ field will be left standing as the “Masters Trends Champion”.
Check out our complete Masters Players Guide
Trends #1-5 – Masters Experience
Why this trend matters: Along with course experience at Augusta National being more important than at any other course, players constantly speak about the learning curve that is necessary to have success here. Whether it’s knowing where to miss below the hole on a particular approach shot or having a knowledge bank in your mind of how putts break on certain holes, the more repetitions players gain, the better their chances are to win. As 2018 winner Patrick Reed said, “It truly is a course knowledge golf course. You need to know where to put the ball on certain pins and if you miss you need to miss it in certain spots because there’s some areas around here that it’s literally impossible, unless you make a 15‑, 18‑footer.”
No Masters debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. To extend the value of playing experience at Augusta even further, 19 of the last 24 winners had played in at least three previous Masters before their win. Per that same Data Golf study, a player experiences significant jumps in performance in their 3rd, 7th, and 9th Masters. One peaks at the Masters in their 9th appearance and continues to enjoy sustained success up through their 13th appearance. The other trends in this group equate to some level of previous success on this course, whether simply making the cut or having successful finishes in prior years.
Players who fit all five of these trends: Cameron Champ, Cameron Smith, Charl Schwartzel, Corey Conners, Danny Willett, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Kokrak, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Kevin Na, Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry, Talor Gooch, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau.
Trend #6 – Back-to-Back Green Jackets is a Rare Feat
Why this trend matters: The only winners to repeat the following season at the Masters were Jack Nicklaus (1965-1966), Nick Faldo (1989-1990), and Tiger Woods (2001-2002). Although he is currently the most feared golfer in the world and has won two of his last five tournaments, last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler has his work cut out for him.
Players who fit this trend: All except Scottie Scheffler.
Trend #7 – This Is Not Longshot Season
Why this trend matters: Time has proven that it takes a highly-skilled, world-class player to win the Masters. Yes, there have been outliers such as Angel Cabrera back in 2009 who was ranked 69th in the world. But for the most part, it’s the best of the best that put on the Green Jacket each year. From a betting perspective, the average odds of the past 13 winners have been +3700 which is in that upper mid-range area. Taking a closer look at players ranked inside the top-30 who are also around the +3000 to +4500 range is another wise strategy.
Players who fit this trend: Billy Horschel, Brian Harman, Cameron Smith, Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, Tom Kim, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Kurt Kitayama, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Sahith Theegala, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele.
Trends #8-10 – Do You Know That Winning Feeling?
Why this trend matters: Experience winning tournaments along with the pressure and everything that goes into those occurrences is a definite prerequisite for becoming a Masters champion. And not only that, but being in contention in a recent major event also seems to add to a player’s confidence in having success in future “big-stage” events. In a pressure-packed moment of time as critical as contending during “Sunday at the Masters”, being able to draw from those past lessons and experiences is an edge that can push a player over the top to a Green Jacket celebration.
Players who fit all three of these trends: Cameron Smith, Collin Morikawa, Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele.
Trends #11-14 – Current Form, Especially Tee-to-Green is Key
Why this trend matters: Recent form is everything in golf. History has proven that golfers entering Masters week in superb form have a much better chance at success than those coming in struggling with their game. This has been exemplified in the past with a player’s Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (T2G) in the four events leading up to their Masters win. The T2G metric measures a player’s strokes gained off-the-tee, on approach, and around the green. It does not use putting as part of the equation. Putting is much more volatile with even the best putters having bad weeks, and the worst putters sometimes have great weeks. Both history and research show that being an elite ball-striker is the quickest way to the top of major championship leaderboards. Gaining strokes off-the-tee or on approach is the foundation. Combine that with the necessary touch that is needed chipping from tight lies around the treacherous Augusta National greens and it’s easy to see why T2G is so vital this week.
Here are the SG: T2G totals for the last eleven Masters winners in the four events leading up to their victory.
2022: Scottie Scheffler – 20.1
2021: Hideki Matsuyama – 18.5
2020: Dustin Johnson – 36.1
2019: Tiger Woods – 22.2
2018: Patrick Reed – 18.0
2017: Sergio Garcia – 31.4
2016: Danny Willett – 18.2
2015: Jordan Spieth – 28.6
2014: Bubba Watson – 37.9
2013: Adam Scott – 24.2
2012: Bubba Watson – 40.9
Players who fit all four of these trends: Collin Morikawa, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland.
Trend #15 – Elite Putter Not Required
Why this trend matters: First off, this trend does not imply that you can’t be a highly-ranked putter to win the Masters. Jordan Spieth was ranked 9th back in 2015 and two others were ranked in the top 60 which is above average. However, the average SG: Putting rank for the last 15 winners of the Masters has been 89th. Here’s the complete ranking list:
2022: Scottie Scheffler – 58
2021: Hideki Matsuyama – 175
2020: Dustin Johnson – 48
2019: Tiger Woods – 74
2018: Patrick Reed – 72
2017: Sergio Garcia – 162
2016: Danny Willett – 60
2015: Jordan Spieth – 9
2014: Bubba Watson – 109
2013: Adam Scott – 130
2012: Bubba Watson – 142
2011: Charl Schwartzel – 96
2010: Phil Mickelson – 133
2009: Angel Cabrera – 63
2008: Trevor Immelman – 191
Those same winners have ranked at an average of 14th place for Greens in Regulation (GIR) putting during the week they won their Green Jacket, which means that even though they are not known as being “great” putters they still had a quality week on the greens. The question then becomes, why do seemingly average to poor putters have so much overall success at Augusta National. We first need to start with how difficult putting is for everyone on these greens.
With so many putts being missed by everyone, the playing field levels very quickly. As former PGA Tour caddie, Brian Mull remarked, “Severely sloped greens with speed are a great equalizer of putting skill. If anything, these greens favor lag putters, those who like their ball to drop in over the front edge.”
Approach play at Augusta National is directly related to short-game play. According to a study done by Golf Magazine a few years ago, “3-10 foot putts are made at a higher rate than an average PGA Tour stop, perhaps because the greens are so pure. But move outside 10 feet and that advantage disintegrates.” The reason? The undulations combined with the speed of the greens mean that every foot further the ball is away from the hole the more tricky the putt becomes. Precise iron players who can stick their approaches within 10 feet have a huge advantage. Most of those past winners also ranked near the top of the leaderboard in SG: Approach for the week as well, which in turn made their putts easier.
A final factor is experience on these greens. Every trip to Augusta, every round played, every putt taken – it all adds up in a player’s memory bank. They know exactly where to miss on the greens in order to set up an easier uphill putt. This all connects with the “Masters Experience” trends. And thus, once players reach the greens, it all comes full circle.
Players who fit this trend: Adam Scott, Adrian Meronk, Billy Horschel, Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka, Bubba Watson, Cameron Champ, Cameron Young, Charl Schwartzel, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Dustin Johnson, Francesco Molinari, Gary Woodland, Harold Varner, Hideki Matsuyama, J.T. Poston, Joaquin Niemann, Tom Kim, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Keith Mitchell, Kevin Kisner, Kevin Na, Kurt Kitayama, K.H. Lee, Min Woo Lee, Mito Pereira, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Ryan Fox, Sahith Theegala, Scott Stallings, Scottie Scheffler, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im, Talor Gooch, Thomas Pieters, Tiger Woods, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris.
Trend #16-17 – Bombs Away
Why this trend matters: Simply put, Augusta National is a bombers paradise. When Bobby Jones was designing Augusta National he wanted golfers to “have an unrestricted feeling of being able to swing away amid a wide swath of parkland”. When analyzing the numbers off the tee, the data most definitely bears that out. Players are free to bomb away with driver without any fear of thick rough or water hazards of any kind. Driving distance is one of the highest on Tour at 295 yards.
This year, Augusta National will stretch out to its longest distance ever at 7,545 yards. At that length, it measures as the eighth longest course in the annual Tour rotation. And with the fairway grass being mown in the direction from green to tee in the opposite direction of the hole, rollout on drives will be minimized even further. With easy-to-hit fairways and no harsh penalty from being in the minimal “second-cut” of rough, bombers have a distinct advantage. More than half of the driving holes also lack fairway bunkers. Added distance also helps on ensuring players can reach each of the par 5s in two shots by hitting longer irons into the greens instead of fairway woods. This is significantly more vital this year with the par 5 13th hole being lengthened by 30 yards.
From a weather angle, over the past 10 days, the area has received over two inches of rainfall. This should soften up the fairways making the course play even longer and giving an advantage to players with more carry distance off the tee. And with cooler temperatures forecast in the 45-60 degree range along with westerly winds, the ball will not travel as far. This emphasizes even more of a need for distance off-the-tee in this year’s tournament.
Players who fit both trends: Adam Scott, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Bubba Watson, Cameron Champ, Cameron Young, Corey Conners, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Jason Kokrak, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Keith Mitchell, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Ryan Fox, Sahith Theegala, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Sergio Garcia, Sungjae Im, Thomas Pieters, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele.
Trend #18 – Feasting on the Par 5s is a Necessity
Why this trend matters: One of the most important areas players will have to conquer at Augusta National en route to victory will be dominating the four par 5s. The data supporting its importance is quite staggering. Since 2009, Par 5 scoring at the Masters accounts for 72% of the winners’ total output. For the last two winners, Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama, 95% of their scoring was on these holes. In the chart below, you can see how each of the champions since 2009 has fared on the par 5s compared to their par 3/4 scoring.
Players who fit this trend: Adam Scott, Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, J.T. Poston, Jason Kokrak, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, Tom Kim, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, Keith Mitchell, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Min Woo Lee, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Ryan Fox, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Thomas Pieters, Tom Hoge, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele.
Trend #19 – Tight, Uneven Lies Galore Bring out the Best Short-Gamers
Augusta National features some of the toughest greens to hold on approach. This leads to some of the tightest lies around the green that players will face all year. Whether chipping from the short grass to get into birdie position on a par 5 or simply scrambling to save par, Augusta National places more of a premium on short-game technique and skill than any other course. Hitting cleanly under the ball while attempting to control where it goes on these treacherous greens puts extra pressure on golfers who are oftentimes just trying to survive the hole.
One of the best short-game players on Tour, Jason Day, gave a good example of the touch needed here. “Around the greens, you definitely have to have that touch. I always say you have to hit it hard enough but soft enough around here. If you get that, then you understand what it means to chip around Augusta. You could be hitting a chip shot and you might hit the same chip shot, one with less spin and one with more spin, and they could be 20, 30 feet apart, but you could hit it on the same line. So you have to be precise here.”
Here are the SG: Around the Green averages per round from the last 10 winners at Augusta National in the 16 rounds leading into the Masters tournament.
2022: Scottie Scheffler – 0.43
2021: Hideki Matsuyama – 0.66
2020: Dustin Johnson – 0.33
2019: Tiger Woods – 0.53
2018: Patrick Reed – 0.56
2017: Sergio Garcia – 0.38
2016: Danny Willett – 0.71
2015: Jordan Spieth – 0.63
2014: Bubba Watson – 0.26
2013: Adam Scott – 0.42
Players who fit this trend: Adam Svensson, Adrian Meronk, Alex Noren, Billy Horschel, Cameron Young, Chris Kirk, Danny Willett, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Tom Kim, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Keith Mitchell, K.H. Lee, Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Sahith Theegala, Sam Burns, Scott Stallings, Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele.
2023 Masters Trends Champion
This year there are two players that fit all 19 trends…Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas. Hideki Matsuyama finished third with 18. Jon Rahm and Jordan Spieth tied for fourth by fitting 17 trends. The highest LIV player was Dustin Johnson with 12. Last year’s champion Scottie Scheffler finished in fifth place. Here are the standings for the top 20 players:
Rory McIlroy – 19
Justin Thomas – 19
Hideki Matsuyama – 18
Jon Rahm – 17
Jordan Spieth – 17
Corey Conners – 16
Patrick Cantlay – 16
Scottie Scheffler – 16
Shane Lowry – 16
Viktor Hovland – 16
Collin Morikawa – 15
Tommy Fleetwood – 15
Tony Finau – 15
Xander Schauffele – 15
Matt Fitzpatrick – 14
Max Homa – 14
Sungjae Im – 14
Jason Day – 13
Tyrrell Hatton – 13
Will Zalatoris – 13
Featured Image Credit: Andrew Redington/Getty Images
